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Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?

by Alessandro Prati Thierry Tressel

This paper studies how macroeconomic policies can help offset two unintended and undesirable features of foreign aid: its volatility and Dutch disease. We present evidence that aid volatility augments trade balance volatility and that foreign aid, with the important exception of years of adverse shocks, depresses exports. We also find that these effects can be mitigated through changes in net domestic assets of the central bank-a variable that reflects both monetary and fiscal policy. To characterize the optimal policy, we develop a general equilibrium model in which the capital account is closed and aid influences productivity growth through positive (public expenditure) and negative (Dutch disease) externalities. In this setting, macroeconomic policies permanently affect real variables and can improve welfare if donors do not distribute foreign aid optimally over time

Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals

by Alessandro Prati Massimo Sbracia

A report from the International Monetary Fund.

External Balance in Low Income Countries

by Alessandro Prati Luca Antonio Ricci Lone Christiansen Thierry Tressel

A report from the International Monetary Fund.

External Performance in Low-Income Countries

by Alessandro Prati Luca Antonio Ricci Lone Christiansen Stephen Tokarick Thierry Tressel

Assessments of exchange rate misalignments and external imbalances for low-income countries are challenging because methodologies developed for advanced and emerging economies cannot be automatically applied to poorer nations. This paper uses a large database, unique in the set of indicators and number of countries it covers, to estimate the relationship in low-income countries between a set of fundamentals in the medium to long term and the real effective exchange rate, the current account, and the net external assets position.

Money Market Integration

by Alessandro Prati Leonardo Bartolini Spence Hilton

A report from the International Monetary Fund.

Signaling Fiscal Regime Sustainability

by Alessandro Prati Francesco Drudi

A report from the International Monetary Fund.

Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries

by Alessandro Prati Antonio Spilimbergo Jonathan D. Ostry

Drawing on a new dataset covering reforms of domestic product markets, international trade, the domestic financial sector, and the external capital account, this book examines the impact on economic performance in 91 countries of policies designed to increase the role of market forces and competition. Such policies, known as structural reforms, have been broadly pursued by the country groupings analyzed in this study since 1970, but individual country experiences have differed. Real and financial reforms have, for example, boosted income growth widely. Financial reforms have also raised growth through several channels, including lower domestic credit constraints and larger FDI inflows. The growth effects of financial and real reforms reflect a more favorable assessment of the future profitability and solvency of domestic firms in most countries, as embodied in credit ratings. Growth effects, however, differ significantly across countries depending on the reform sequencing strategy adop

Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

by Alessandro Prati R. Gaston Gelos Oya Celasun

A report from the International Monetary Fund.

Showing 1 through 15 of 15 results

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