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After Saddam: Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq

by Nora Bensahel Olga Oliker Keith Crane Heather S. Gregg Richard R. Brennan

This monograph examines prewar planning efforts for the reconstruction of postwar Iraq. It then examines the role of U.S. military forces after major combat officially ended on May 1, 2003, through June 2004. Finally, it examines civilian efforts at reconstruction, focusing on the activities of the Coalition Provisional Authority and its efforts to rebuild structures of governance, security forces, economic policy, and essential services.

Air Power as a Coercive Instrument

by Ian O. Lesser Keith Crane Seth G. Jones Rollie Lal John G. Mcginn Daniel Byman

Coercion--the use of threatened force to induce an adversary to change its behavior--is a critical function of the U.S. military. U.S. forces have recently fought in the Balkans, the Persian Gulf, and the Horn of Africa to compel recalcitrant regimes and warlords to stop repression, abandon weapons programs, permit humanitarian relief, and otherwise modify their actions. Yet despite its overwhelming military might, the United States often fails to coerce successfully. This report examines the phenomenon of coercion and how air power can contribute to its success. Three factors increase the likelihood of successful coercion: (1) the coercer's ability to raise the costs it imposes while denying the adversary the chance to respond (escalation dominance); (2) an ability to block an adversary's military strategy for victory; and (3) an ability to magnify third-party threats, such as internal instability or the danger posed by another enemy. Domestic political concerns (such as casualty sensitivity) and coalition dynamics often constrain coercive operations and impair the achievement of these conditions. Air power can deliver potent and credible threats that foster the above factors while neutralizing adversary counter-coercive moves. When the favorable factors are absent, however, air power--or any other military instrument--will probably fail to coerce. Policymakers' use of coercive air power under inauspicious conditions diminishes the chances of using it elsewhere when the prospects of success would be greater.

The Beginner's Guide to Nation-Building

by James Dobbins Keith Crane Seth G. Jones Beth Cole Degrasse

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States, NATO, the United Nations, and a range of other states and nongovernmental organizations have become increasingly involved in nation-building operations. Nation-building involves the use of armed force as part of a broader effort to promote political and economic reforms, with the objective of transforming a society emerging from conflict into one at peace with itself and its neighbors. This guidebook is a practical ?"how-to?" manual on the conduct of effective nation-building. It is organized around the constituent elements that make up any nation-building mission: military, police, rule of law, humanitarian relief, governance, economic stabilization, democratization, and development. The chapters describe how each of these components should be organized and employed, how much of each is likely to be needed, and the likely cost. The lessons are drawn principally from 16 U.S.- and UN-led nation-building operations since World War II and from a forthcoming study on European-led missions. In short, this guidebook presents a comprehensive history of best practices in nation-building and serves as an indispensable reference for the preplanning of future interventions and for contingency planning on the ground.

Building a More Resilient Haitian State

by James Dobbins Keith Crane Christopher S. Chivvis Laurel E. Miller Charles P. Ries

Hope for a prosperous and peaceful future for Haiti lies in building a more effective, resilient state. This report identifies the main challenges to more capable governance, evaluates existing plans for improving the delivery of public services, and proposes a realistic set of critical actions. The proposed state-building priorities merit the greatest degree of Haiti's andinternational donors' policy attention and financial commitment.

Developing Iraq's Security Sector

by Olga Oliker Keith Crane Andrew Rathmell Terrence K. Kelly David Brannan

From May 2003 to June 28, 2004 (when it handed over authority to the Iraqi Interim Government), the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) worked to field Iraqi security forces and to develop security sector institutions. This book-all of whose authors were advisors to the CPA-breaks out the various elements of Iraq's security sector, including the defense, interior, and justice sectors, and assesses the CPA's successes and failures.

The Effectiveness of China's Industrial Policies in Commercial Aviation Manufacturing

by Keith Crane David Yang Jill E. Luoto Scott Warren Harold Samuel K. Berkowitz Xiao Wang

Since economic reforms began in 1978, China has enjoyed rapid growth in exports, which have contributed to the country's impressive economic growth. Improvements in the quality of China's workforce, manufacturing technologies, and materials have enabled the country to enter new, more technologically sophisticated industries. In several such industries, which the Chinese government has frequently denoted as strategic, the Chinese government has employed industrial policies, formal and informal, to foster the development of national champions. As part of this strategy, the Chinese government has attempted to induce the transfer of technologies from foreign manufacturers to Chinese companies. To the extent that these policies have been successful, they have accelerated shifts in production and employment from industries located in other countries to China. This report explores the emerging commercial aviation manufacturing industry in China to examine the effectiveness of the policies and mechanisms the Chinese government has used to create "national champions;" evaluate the effectiveness of the steps taken by foreign manufacturers to prevent transfers of key technologies to potential future Chinese competitors when setting up manufacturing facilities in China; provide policy options that allow foreign governments to effectively respond to Chinese industrial policies; and alert Chinese policymakers to the downsides of China's current industrial policies.

Encouraging Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine

by Keith Crane F. Stephen Larrabee

Reports on a study whose goal was to analyze Ukraine's environment for foreign trade and FDI and to develop policy proposals to expand Ukraine's foreign trade and attract more FDI, especially vis-Ã -vis the United States. Barriers to trade and FDI, the chief one being corruption, are described, and a two-pronged strategy for removing the worst barriers is recommended-one prong to bring immediate results; the other to set in motion changes requiring more time.

Europe's Role in Nation-Building: From the Balkans to the Congo

by James Dobbins Keith Crane Seth G. Jones Christopher S. Chivvis Andrew Radin

Two previous RAND volumes addressed the roles of the United States and the United Nations in nation-building, defined as the use of armed force in the aftermath of a conflict to promote a durable peace and representative government. This volume presents six case studies of recent European-led nation-building missions: Albania, Sierra Leone, Macedonia, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Bosnia. It also reviews the Australian assistance mission to the Solomon Islands. Using quantitative and qualitative measures to compare inputs (such military levels, economic assistance and duration) and outcomes (such as levels of security, economic growth, refugee return, and democracy), the analysis concludes that these European-led missions have been competently managed and, within their sometimes quite limited scope, generally successful. Most helped achieve sustained peace, gross domestic product growth, and representative government. The EU has a wide array of civil competencies for nation-building, but it is sometimes slow to deploy them in support of its military operations, particularly when these are conducted far from Europe. The UN offers the most cost-effective means to address most postconflict stabilization requirements and NATO the better framework for large-scale force projection in cases in which the United States is ready to participate. But the EU now offers European governments a viable alternative to both these organizations in cases in which European interests are high, U.S. interests are low, and the UN is, for some reason, unsuitable or unavailable.

Imported Oil and U.S. National Security

by Keith Crane Stuart E. Johnson Michael Toman Andreas Goldthau Thomas Light

In 2007, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed. This book critically evaluates commonly suggested links between these imports and U.S. national security and assesses the economic, political, and military costs and benefits of potential policies to alleviate imported oil?related challenges to U.S. national security.

Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities

by Keith Crane Rollie Lal

Iran is one of the United States' most important foreign policy concerns. It has also been an extraordinarily difficult country with which to engage. Ironically, while the leadership has been hostile to the United States, Iranian society has evolved in ways friendly to the United States and U.S. interests. This monograph assesses current political, ethnic, demographic, and economic trends and vulnerabilities in Iran. For example, the numbers of young people entering the Iranian labor force are at an all-time high. The authors then provide recommendations for U.S. policies that might foster trends beneficial to U.S. interests. For example, greater use of markets and a more-vibrant private sector would contribute to the development of sources of political power independent from the current regime. The authors finally note a need for patience. Even if favorable trends take root, it will take time for them to come to fruition.

Libya's Post-Qaddafi Transition: The Nation-Building Challenge

by Keith Crane Christopher S. Chivvis Jeffrey Martini Peter Mandaville

A year after Qaddafi's death, the light-footprint approach adopted for Libya's postwar transition is facing its most serious test. Security, the political transition, and economic development all present challenges. But if Libya's transitional authorities and the international community handle this issue set adroitly, Libya could still emerge as a positive force for democratic stability in North Africa and a valuable partner against al-Qaeda.

A New Direction for China's Defense Industry

by Keith Crane Evan S. Medeiros Roger Cliff James C. Mulvenon

Since the early 1980s, a prominent and consistent conclusion drawn from research on China's defense-industrial complex has been that China's defense-production capabilities are rife with weaknesses and limitations. This study argues for an alternative approach: From the vantage point of 2005, it is time to shift the focus of current research to the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China's defense-industrial complex. The study found that China's defense sectors are designing and producing a wide range of increasingly advanced weapons that, in the short term, are relevant to a possible conflict over Taiwan but also to China's long-term military presence in Asia. Part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this study examines the current and future capabilities of China's defense industry. The goals of this study are to 1.

The Option of an Oil Tax to Fund Transportation and Infrastructure

by Keith Crane Nicholas Burger Martin Wachs

Federal spending on surface-transportation infrastructure outpaces federal taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel. Increasing fuel efficiency means that fuel-purchase expenditures have dropped, so real revenue generated from these taxes has declined. A percentage tax on crude oil and imported refined-petroleum products consumed in the United States could fund U.S. transportation infrastructure.

Overcoming Obstacles To Peace: Local Factors In Nation-building

by James Dobbins Keith Crane Christopher S. Chivvis Laurel E. Miller Tewodaj Mengistu Julie E. Taylor Stephanie Pezard Calin Trenkov-Wermuth

Following on a series of RAND Corporation studies of nation-building, this monograph analyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to successful outcomes in these interventions. It examines how external actors and local leaders in a variety of societies modified or worked around those conditions to promote enduring peace.

Pacific Currents

by Keith Crane Evan S. Medeiros Eric Heginbotham Julia F. Lowell Norman D. Levin

China's importance in the Asia-Pacific has been on the rise, raising concerns about competition the United States. The authors examined the reactions of six U.S. allies and partners to China's rise. All six see China as an economic opportunity. They want it to be engaged productively in regional affairs, but without becoming dominant. They want the United States to remain deeply engaged in the region.

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

by Keith Crane Christopher S. Chivvis Michael Spirtas Samir Puri C. Christine Fair

The authors exposit likely developments in Pakistan's internal and external security environment over the coming decade; assess Pakistan's national will and capacity to solve its problems, especially those relating to security; describe U.S. interests in Pakistan; and suggest policies for the U.S. government to pursue in order to secure those interests.

Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications

by Olga Oliker Keith Crane Lowell H. Schwartz Catherine Yusupov

As Russia's economy has grown, so have the country's global involvement and influence, which often take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes. The authors assess Russia's strategic interests and goals, examining the country's domestic policies, economic development, security goals, and worldview. They assess implications for U.S. interests and present ways that Washington could work to improve its relations with Moscow.

The UN's Role in Nation-Building: From the Congo to Iraq

by James Dobbins Keith Crane Andrew Rathmell Brett Steele Seth G. Jones

Reviews UN efforts to transform eight unstable countries into democratic, peaceful, and prosperous partners, and compares those missions with U.S. nation-building operations. The UN provides the most suitable institutional framework for nation-building missions that require fewer than 20,000 men-one with a comparatively low cost structure, a comparatively high success rate, and the greatest degree of international legitimacy.

Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies

by Keith Crane David C. Gompert Stuart E. Johnson Walter L. Perry John Gordon

In studying the withdrawal from Iraq, RAND assessed logistical constraints, trends in insurgent activity, the readiness of Iraqi security forces, and implications for the size of the residual U.S. force and for security in Iraq and the region. This report presents alternative schedules: one consistent with the Obama administration's intentions, one somewhat slower, and another faster. It also identifies steps to alleviate constraints and risks.

Showing 1 through 19 of 19 results


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