- Table View
- List View
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century. " --Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight. com, where Silver is one of the nation's most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Select your download format based upon: 1) how you want to read your book, and 2) compatibility with your reading tool. For more details, visit the Formats page under the Getting Started tab.See and hear words read aloud
- DAISY Text - See words on the screen and hear words being read aloud with the text-to-speech voice installed on your reading tool. Navigate by page, chapter, section, and more. Can also be used in audio-only mode. Compatible with many reading tools, including Bookshare’s free reading tools.
- DAISY Text with Images - Similar to DAISY Text with the addition of images within the Text. Your reading tool must support images.
- Read Now with Bookshare Web Reader - Read and see images directly from your Internet browser without downloading! Text-to-speech voicing and word highlighting are available on Google Chrome (extension installation required). Other browsers can be used with limited features. Learn more
- DAISY Audio - Listen to books in audio-only mode with the high-quality Kendra voice by Ivona pre-installed. Navigate by page, chapter, section, and more. Must be used with a DAISY Audio compatible reading tool.
- MP3 - Listen to books in audio-only mode with the high-quality Kendra voice by Ivona pre-installed. Navigate using tracks. Can be used with any MP3 player.
- BRF (Braille Ready Format) - Read with any BRF compatible refreshable braille display; navigate using the search or find feature.
- DAISY Text - Read with any DAISY 3.0 compatible refreshable braille display, navigate by page, chapter, section, and more.
- Embossed Braille - Use Bookshare’s DAISY Text or BRF formats to generate embossed braille.