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A summary of the research literature on how the processes and outcomes of virtual, or mediated, collaborations are affected by the communication medium (videoconferencing, audioconferencing, or computer-mediated conferencing); a discussion of ways to mitigate problems in such collaboration; and a suggested strategy for choosing the most effective medium, including face-to-face communication and hybrid systems, as a function of task and context.
It may not be possible to deter fanatical terrorists, but members of terrorist systems may be amenable to influence. The U.S. counterterrorism strategy should therefore include political warfare, placing at risk things the terrorists hold dear, a credible threat of force against states or groups that support acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and maintaining cooperation with other nations engaged in the war on terror, while also preserving core American values.
Governments intervening in post-conflict states find themselves beset with numerous challenges and profound dilemmas: It is often unclear how best to proceed because measures that may improve conditions in one respect may undermine them in another. This volume reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction, with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level.
Description of a methodology and a prototype tool, Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying investment options for defense capability areas. It ensures that a broad range of options is considered initially, then uses a screening technique to narrow the range to those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework. BCOT extends classic economics and operations-research techniques and suggests pragmatic approximations, particularly in capabilities-based planning.
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
This report offers research and recommendations on ways to measure the overall efforts of the national border-security enterprise between ports of entry. Focusing on three missions--illegal drug control, counterterrorism, and illegal migration--this report recommends ways to measure performance of U.S. border-security efforts in terms of interdiction, deterrence, and exploiting networked intelligence.
An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research.
Deterring terrorism is best approached as part of a broad effort to influence all elements of a terrorist system, and simple, conceptual models of decisionmaking can help in understanding how to affect others' behavior. The paper lays out a theory of how to use influence to affect elements of a terrorist system, touching on root causes, individual motivation, public support, and likely factors in the decisionmaking of terrorist organizations.
Using and testing a conceptual model that draws on social science and particularly social movement theory, this volume examines public support for al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases, how their importance varied in each case, and how this understanding can inform strategy.
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