The post-World War II occupations of Germany and Japan set standards for post-conflict nation-building that have not since been matched. Only in recent years has the United States has felt the need to participate in similar transformations, but it is now facing one of the most challenging prospects since the 1940s: Iraq. The authors review seven case studies--Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan--and seek lessons about what worked well and what did not. Then, they examine the Iraq situation in light of these lessons. Success in Iraq will require an extensive commitment of financial, military, and political resources for a long time. The United States cannot afford to contemplate early exit strategies and cannot afford to leave the job half completed.
Better ways are needed to understand how terrorist groups increase their effectiveness and become more dangerous. Learning is the link between what a group wants to do and its ability to actually do it; therefore, a better understanding of group learning might contribute to the design of better measures for combating terrorism. This study analyzes current understanding of group learning and the factors that influence it. It presents detailed case studies of learning in five terrorist organizations and develops a methodology for ascertaining what and why groups have learned, providing insights into their learning processes.
Examines al-Qaeda??s evolution and the emergence of the broader global jihadist movement-groups affiliated, associated, or inspired by al-Qaeda-and the threat that they pose to the United States and U.S. allies and interests. The authors conclude by setting out a four-pronged strategy to counter the jihadist threat.
Examines violent terrorist groups that, while not formally allied with al-Qaeda, could pose a threat to Americans now or in the future and to the security of our friends and allies. The authors show how terrorists use criminal organizations and connections to finance their activities, and they identify distinct strategies to neutralize or mitigate these threats.
Technology systems play a key role within a larger, integrated strategy to target groups' efforts and protect the public from the threat of terrorist violence. This study draws on relevant data from the history of a variety of terrorist conflicts to understand terrorists' counter-technology efforts. Fully exploring adversaries' counter-technology behaviors can help make the best choices to protect from the nation from the threat of terrorism.
Although irregular warfare includes a range of activities in which naval forces have played an integral role, there has been little examination of the characteristics or potential of such operations in maritime environments. An assessment of the maritime component of a series of historical and ongoing operations reveals that current notions of irregular warfare would benefit from increased recognition of potentialmaritime contributions.
Confronting the Enemy Within: Security Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democraciesby William Rosenau Mark Hanson Martin Wachs Myles Collins Peter Chalk
Since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, critics have charged that the Federal Bureau of Investigation, while qualified to investigate terrorist incidents after the fact, is not well equipped enough to adequately gather and assess information to prevent attacks. More intrinsically, many believe that given a predominant and deeply rooted law enforcement and prosecutorial culture, the bureau may not be able to change operational focus toward dedicated counterterrorism intelligence gathering and analysis. To better inform debate, researchers analyzed the domestic security structures of four allied countries--the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia--weighing both their positive and negative aspects. (PW/PC)
Multinational corporations can be significant actors in zones of violent conflict. Corporate actions to shape their environment can sometimes mitigate conflict, but as the authors show in their case studies, corporate activities can help generate and sustain violence.
Countering Piracy in the Modern Era: Notes from a Rand Workshop to Discuss the Best Approaches for Dealing with Piracy in the 21st Centuryby Peter Chalk Nicholas Burger Laurence Smallman
In March 2009, the RAND Corporation convened a small group of experts from the U.S. government, allied partner nations, the maritime industry, and academic organizations to discuss piracy in the modern era. Participants concluded that mitigating the complex nature of maritime crime requires the input of all stakeholders--state, national, private, and nongovernmental--and must embrace measures beyond the reactive deployment of naval assets.
Governments spend billions to protect against terrorism. Might it help to understand what al Qaeda would achieve with each specific attack? This book examines various hypotheses of terrorist targeting: is it (1) to coerce, (2) to damage economies, (3) to rally the faithful, or (4) a decision left to affiliates? This book analyzes past attacks, post hoc justifications, and expert opinion to weigh each hypothesis.
This book identifies the procedures and capabilities that the U.S. Department of Defense, other agencies of the U.S. government, U.S. allies and partners, and international organizations require in order to support the transition from counterinsurgency, when the military takes primary responsibility for security and economic operations, to stability and reconstruction, when police and civilian government agencies take the lead.
This book examines six case studies of insurgencies from around the world to determine the key factors necessary for a successful transition from counterinsurgency to a more stable situation. The authors review the causes of each insurgency and the key players involved, and examine what the government did right--or wrong--to bring the insurgency to an end and to transition to greater stability.
This study offers a more comprehensive analysis of the security implications of the spread of infectious diseases than has been done to date. The study examines the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, highlighting this particular crisis as a graphic example of the devastating effects that infectious disease can have on virtually every aspect of a state's functioning viability. It also makes a detailed analysis of the United States, delineating the threat posed by specific diseases; assessing the effectiveness of the existing public health infrastructure; and offering specific actions that can be taken to improve the country's ability to meet this emerging challenge. ISBN: 0-8330-3293-3 Price: $20.00 Est. page count: last roman--xvii
Hitting America's Soft Underbelly: The Potential Threat of Deliberate Biological Attacks Against the U. S. Agricultural and Food Industryby Peter Chalk
Over the past decade, the United States has endeavored to increase its ability to detect, prevent, and respond to terrorist threats and incidents. The agriculture sector and the food industry in general, however, have received comparatively little attention with respect to protection against terrorist incidents. This study aims to expand the current debate on domestic homeland security by assessing the vulnerabilities of the agricultural sector and the food chain to a deliberate act of biological terrorism and exploring the likely outcomes of a successful attack.
India and Pakistan have very different visions for Afghanistan, and they seek to advance highly disparate interests through their respective engagements in the country. This paper reviews the countries' interests in Afghanistan, how they have tried to further their interests, how Afghanistan navigates their rivalry, and the rivalry's implications for U. S. and Indian policy.
Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is undergoing a profound transformation that could lead to a variety of outcomes, from the consolidation of democracy to return to authoritarianism or military rule, to radical Islamic rule, or to violent disintegration. The stakes are high, for Indonesia is the key to Southeast Asian security. The authors examine the trends and dynamics that are driving Indonesia's transformation, outline possible strategic futures and their implications for regional stability, and identify options the United States might pursue in the critical challenge of influencing Indonesia's future course. Steps the United States might take now include support for Indonesia's stability and territorial integrity, reestablishment of Indonesian-U.S. military cooperation and interaction, aid in rebuilding a constructive Indonesian role in regional security, and support for development of a regional crisis reaction force. A continued strong U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region will reinforce the U.S. role as regional balancer.
Transnational crime remains a particularly serious problem in Latin America, with most issues connected to the drug trade. There are several relevant roles that the U.S. Air Force can and should play in boosting Mexico's capacity to counter drug production and trafficking, as well as further honing and adjusting its wider counternarcotics effort in Latin America.
This study of the Mumbai, India, terrorist attack of November 2008 identifies the operational and tactical capabilities displayed by the terrorists and evaluates the response of the Indian security forces, with the goal of helping counterterrorism authorities in India and elsewhere to prepare for or counter future terrorist attacks on urban centers.
Current unrest in the Malay-Muslim provinces of southern Thailand hascaptured growing national, regional, and international attention due to theheightened tempo and scale of rebel attacks, the increasingly jihadistundertone that has come to characterize insurgent actions, and the centralgovernment's often brutal handling of the situation on the ground. Thispaper assesses the current situation and its probable direction.
The Maritime Dimension of International Security: Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United Statesby Peter Chalk
The vast size and highly unregulated nature of the world's waterways have made the maritime environment an increasingly attractive theater for perpetrators of transnational violence. Piracy and sea-borne terrorism have been on the rise since 2000. While the United States has spearheaded several important initiatives to improve maritime security, the author urges policymakers to consider four additional measures to safeguard the world's oceans.
Policymakers have become increasingly concerned in recent years about the possibility of future maritime terrorist attacks. Though the historical occurrence of such attacks has been limited, recognition that maritime vessels and facilities may be particularly vulnerable to terrorism has galvanized concerns. In addition, some plausible maritime attacks could have very significant consequences, in the form of mass casualties, severe property damage, and attendant disruption of commerce. Understanding the nature of maritime terrorism risk requires an investigation of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences associated with potential attacks, as grounded both by relevant historical data and by intelligence on the capabilities and intentions of known terrorist groups. These risks also provide the context for understanding government institutions that will respond to future attacks, and particularly so with regard to the U.S. civil justice system. In principle, civil liability operates to redistribute the harms associated with legally redressable claims, so that related costs are borne by the parties responsible for having caused them. In connection with maritime terrorism, civil liability creates the prospect that independent commercial defendants will be held responsible for damages caused by terrorist attacks. This book explores risks and U.S. civil liability rules as they may apply in the context of these types of attacks.
Six historic counterinsurgency (COIN) operations are examined to determine which tactics, techniques, and procedures led to success and which to failure. The Philippines, Algeria, Vietnam, El Salvador, Jammu and Kashmir, and Colombia were chosen for their varied characteristics relating to geography, historical era, outcome, type of insurgency faced, and level of U.S. involvement. Future U.S. COIN operations can learn from these past lessons.
American Muslims have played an important role in helping to counter extremism and are increasingly using social media to this end. RAND researchers reviewed literature and interviewed American Muslims experienced in social media to understand and explain key challenges facing these Muslim activists, and to identify ways in which the public and private sector can help empower these voices online.
This professional memoir describes RAND's contributions to the evolution of computer science, particularly during the first decades following World War II, when digital computers succeeded slide rules, mechanical desk calculators, electric accounting machines, and analog computers. The memoir includes photographs and vignettes that reveal the collegial, creative, and often playful spirit in which the groundbreaking research was conducted at RAND.
Securing Tyrants or Fostering Reform? U.S. Internal Security Assistance to Repressive and Transitioning Regimesby Peter Chalk Olga Oliker C. Christine Fair Rollie Lal Seth G. Jones
This study examines the results of U.S. assistance to the internal security forces of four repressive states: El Salvador, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Efforts to improve the security, human rights, and accountability of security forces appear more likely to succeed in states transitioning from repressive to democratic systems. In addition, several factors are critical for success: the duration of assistance, viability of the justice system, and support and buy-in from the local government (including key ministries).
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