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East Asian economies of the 1980s and much of the 1990s were among the most competitive exporters of manufactured products and were also able to sustain growth rates far higher than those of other countries, developing or industrial. However, the economic crisis of 1997-98 impacted the economies of these countries. Although recovery began fairly quickly in some countries, others have yet to regain their growth momentum. 'Can East Asia Compete?' looks at whether or not East Asia can restore its near magical performance, or is its competitive strength beginning to wane. This volume argues that East Asian countries have far from exhausted their growth potential. However, future competitiveness will depend on much greater innovative capability in manufacturing and services, innovativeness that is grounded in stronger institutions, improved macroeconomic policies, and closer regional coordination. 'Can East Asia Compete?' clearly summarizes the issues currently being debated and provides guidance to East Asian economies on how to deal with the policy concerns that lie ahead.
A great burst of globalization brought the 20th century to a close, creating upheaval in the world economy from roughly 1995 to 2008. And now a second upheaval is in the offing following the severe financial crisis that plunged the global economy into recession in 2008-09. The first upheaval witnessed a massive migration of manufacturing and certain business services that transformed Asia into the industrial heartland of the world. The second upheaval will likely consolidate Asia's industrial preeminence and could result in a concentration of industrial activities in the two most populous and fastest-growing Asian economies -- China and India. As the two Asian giants become the industrial equals of the United States, Germany, and Japan, the ramifications will affect trade and growth worldwide, the future of development in China and India, and industrialization throughout Asia. This book examines these developments, focusing specifically on China and India. Its analysis and conclusions will be of particular interest to policy makers and academics, as well as anyone with an interest in how China and India are likely to reshape industry throughout Asia.
The key challenges facing China in the next two decades derive from the ongoing process of urbanization. China's urbanization rate in 2005 was about 43%. Over the next 10-15 years, it is expected to rise to well over 50%, adding an additional 200 million mainly rural migrants to the current urban population of 560 million. How China copes with such a large migration flow will strongly influence rural-urban inequality, the pace at which urban centers expand their economic performance, and the urban environment. The growing population will necessitate a big push strategy to maintain a high rate of investment in housing and the urban physical infrastructure and urban services. To finance such expansion will require a significant strengthening and diversification of China's financial system. Growing cities will greatly increase consumption of energy and water. Containing this without at the same time constraining the economic performance of cities or the improvement in the standards of living will call for enlightened policies, strategies, careful urban planning, and significant technological advances. This volume identifies the key developments to watch and discusses the policies which would affect the course as well as the fruitfulness of change.
China is now the world's fourth largest economy and growing very fast. India's economic salience is also on the rise. Together these two countries will profoundly influence the pace and nature of global economic change. Drawing upon the latest research, this volume analyzes the influences on the rapid future development of these two countries and examines how their growth is likely to impinge upon other countries. It considers international trade, industrialization, foreign investment and capital flows, and the implications of their broadening environmental footprints. It also discusses how the two countries have tackled poverty, inequality and governance issues and whether progress in these areas will be a key to rapid and stable growth.
Development Economics through the Decades: A Critical Look at Thirty Years of the World Development Reportby Tharman Shanmugaratnam Montek Singh Ahluwalia Larry Summers Kemal Dervis Joseph Stiglitz Angus Deaton Takatoshi Ito Shahid Yusuf William Easterly Ernesto Zedillo
Since 1978, the World Bank's annual 'World Development Report' (WDR) has provided in-depth analysis and policy recommendations on a specific and important aspect of international development from agriculture, the role of the state, economic growth, and labor to infrastructure, health, the environment, and poverty. In the process, it has become a highly influential publication that is consulted by international organizations, national governments, scholars, and civil society networks to inform their decision-making processes. In this essay, Shahid Yusuf examines the last 30 years of development economics, viewed through the WDRs. The essay begins with a brief background on the circumstances of newly independent developing countries and summarizes some of the main strands of the emerging field of development economics. It then provides a sweeping examination of the coverage of the WDRs, reflecting on the key development themes synthesized by these reports and assessing how the research they present has contributed to policy making and development thought. The book then looks ahead and points to some of the big challenges that the World Bank may explore through future WDRs. The essay is followed by five commentaries, each written by a distinguished economist or development practitioner, which further explore this terrain from different perspectives. Together, the contents of this volume provide an extraordinary and remarkably compact tour of development economics through, around, and beyond the WDR. It will be invaluable to anyone interested in the evolution of development economics over the past three decades as well as for students, scholars, and policy makers in the field of development. To commemorate the 30th anniversary of the 'World Development Report', this book is being simultaneously published with 'The Complete World Development Report, 1978-2009'. This DVD is a fully-searchabel digital archive that contains the full collection of WDRs. For more information about the DVD or the 'World Development Report', visit www.worldbank.org/wdr.
The global crisis of 2008-09 has brought to the forefront a plethora of economic and political policy issues. There is a re-opening of discussion on basic economic concepts, appropriate framework for analysis, role of private and public sectors in the economy, structural transformation of economies, human development and managing of growing risks and crises. The purpose of this book has been to bring home the inter-linkages in various parts of the economy and the need for practical policy making to reach development goals while being aware of the instabilities, complexities and downside risks inherent in the nature of a an economy operating in a globalized world. Thematically, this book focuses on two core types of policy: policies that promote strong, sustainable and inclusive growth in low income and middle income developing countries and new and emerging policies that necessitates a discussion amongst policy makers and practitioners. Throughout the book, the authors provide insight in to the different types of policy approaches that can be taken to help the economy grow. Ultimately the book looks to foster discussion amongst policy makers on growth and development.
Industrial clusters in Silicon Valley, Hsinchu Park, and northern Italy, and in the vicinity of Cambridge, U.K., have captured the imagination of policymakers, researchers, city planners and business people. Where clusters take root, they can generate valuable spillovers, promote innovation, and create the critical industrial mass for sustained growth. For cities such as Kitakyushu, Japan, that are faced with the erosion of their traditional industrial base and are threatened by economic decline, creating a cluster that would reverse the downward trends is enormously attractive. Growing Industrial Clusters in Asia offers practical guidance on the nature of clusters and the likely efficacy of measures that could help build a cluster. It draws on the experience of both established dynamic clusters and newly emerging ones that show considerable promise. The insights that result from its analysis will be of particular interest to policy makers, urban planners, business people, and researchers.
Impressive gains have been made in expanding access to higher education in East Asia over the past few decades, and the significance of higher education is expected to increase as developing economies face the challenge of sustaining growth in a competitive environment. Still, much work needs to be done if higher education is to realize its full potential to produce the skills and research needed for innovation and growth. "Disconnects" between higher education institutions and the skills and research users and providers they interact with--firms, research institutes, earlier education institutions, and other skill providers--have undermined the functioning of the subsector. In order for higher education institutions to be more responsive to the labor market, they should be better aligned with what employers and employees need and better connected among themselves and other skills providers. They also require stronger linkages with firms and other research providers to deliver research that can enhance innovation and productivity. Enacting policy reforms in the areas of financing, public sector management, and stewardship of the entire system will help the region achieve better skills and research outcomes and, ultimately, growth. Putting Higher Education to Work: Skills and Research for Growth in East Asia takes an in-depth and comprehensive look at higher education in East Asia--how it has changed, how it will continue to evolve, and how it can be improved. Using innovative firm surveys and the latest available evidence from the region, the authors identify functional skills needed for competitiveness and productivity, and look at how higher education systems can produce the type of skills and kind of commercially applicable research that will drive growth. Though focused on the developing countries in East Asia, the book's methodologies, messages, and careful guidance will be of interest and value to researchers and policy makers in all regions where higher education and training are important issues. This book is the first title in the East Asia and Pacific Regional Report Series, a series that presents analyses of issues relevant to the region, drawing on the global knowledge and experience of the World Bank and its partners. This series aims to inform public discussion, policy formulation, and development practitioners' actions, and thereby turn challenges into opportunities.
Countries worldwide are struggling to imitate the industrial prowess of the East Asian pacesetters, but growth accelerations have proven remarkably transient. Building a portfolio of tradable goods and services and steadily raising the level of investment in these activities, has generally defied the best policy efforts - in particular, bringing investment ratios on par with East Asian averages has presented the greatest challenge. Hence the search is on for growth recipes not so tightly bound to investment, to manufacturing activities, and to the export of manufactured products. In casting around for such recipes validated by demonstrated results, the experience of economies which have relied more on other drivers of growth - human capital and knowledge - is highly attractive. Finland and Ireland are among the tiny band of small nations that grew rapidly for well over a decade by achieving the maximum mileage from an adequate investment in physical assets and by harnessing the potential of human capital and technologies. Singapore combined high investment with a comprehensive and complementary strategy of building high quality human and knowledge assets. This approach enabled the three countries to diversify much faster into higher tech manufactures and tradable services and profit from globalization. The approach adopted by these three countries may be of greater relevance in the highly competitive global environment of the early 21st century because it does not necessarily assume heroic levels of investment. Moreover, it may be better tailored to the opportunities for middle and lower middle income economies threatened by the middle income trap and seeking growth rates in the 6 percent range, and for the smaller, late starting, low income countries with youthful, rapidly increasing populations that need to grow at high single digit rates in order to create enough jobs and to double per capita incomes in 10 years.
Tiger Economies Under Threat: A Comparative Analysis of Malaysia's Industrial Prospects and Policy Optionsby Shahid Yusuf Kaoru Nabeshima
In recent years, growth rates in the so-called 'Tiger economies' of Southeast Asia have been above the average not only for developing countries but for the world as a whole. Yet they fall short of the economic growth experienced during 1975-95. The underlying worry for policy makers is that the decrease presages the beginning of a downward trend, a worry that has been sharpened by the global recession. But are the Tiger economies under threat? And if so, what are the causes and how can they be addressed? This book employs a comparative analysis of the Southeast Asian Tiger economies, centered on Malaysia, to tackle these questions. The findings presented will be of particular interest to policy makers, academics, business people, and researchers.
Beijing and Shanghai comprise the axes of China's two leading urban regions. Their economic fortunes will affect the overall growth of China. The economic composition of the two megacities differs significantly and the future sources of competitive advantage also lie in different areas although there is some overlap. Shanghai with its diverse industrial base is the industrial powerhouse of China. Its strongest growth prospects still lie in activities associated with manufacturing industry buttressed by improvements in the technological and innovation capabilities of domestic firms and supported by the deepening of business services. In contrast, Beijing's future prospects are more closely tied to research intensive activities and the services industry. This book explores the contrasting development options available to Beijing and Shanghai and proposes strategies for these cities based on their current and acquired capabilities, experience of other world cities, the emerging demand in the national market, and likely trends in global trade.
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