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After decades of stagnation, the size of Latin America's middle class recently expanded to the point where, for the first time ever, the number of people in poverty is equal to the size of the middle class. This volume investigates the nature, determinants and possible consequences of this remarkable process of social transformation. We propose an original definition of the middle class, tailor-made for Latin America, centered on the concept of economic security and thus a low probability of falling into poverty. Given our definition of the middle class, there are four, not three, classes in Latin America. Sandwiched between the poor and the middle class there lies a large group of people who appear to make ends meet well enough, but do not enjoy the economic security that would be required for membership of the middle class. We call this group the 'vulnerable'. In an almost mechanical sense, these transformations in Latin America reflect both economic growth and declining inequality in over the period. We adopt a measure of mobility that decomposes the 'gainers' and 'losers' in society by social class of each household. The continent has experienced a large amount of churning over the last 15 years, at least 43% of all Latin Americans changed social classes between the mid 1990s and the end of the 2000s. Despite the upward mobility trend, intergenerational mobility, a better proxy for inequality of opportunity, remains stagnant. Educational achievement and attainment remain to be strongly dependent upon parental education levels. Despite the recent growth in pro-poor programs, the middle class has benefited disproportionally from social security transfers and are increasingly opting out from government services. Central to the region's prospects of continued progress will be its ability to harness the new middle class into a new, more inclusive social contract, where the better-off pay their fair share of taxes, and demand improved public services.
The popular grievances that have fueled the Arab Spring since 2010 demonstrate that past development paradigms have failed to achieve the inclusive and sustainable growth expected by Arab populations. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have failed to develop a strong private sector that is linked with global markets, survives without state assistance, and generates productive employment for young people. One key symptom of this maldevelopment is that, with the exception of the petroleum sector, MENA remains the least trade-integrated region in the world. The Deauville Partnership, launched by the Group of Eight (G8) in Deauville, France, in May 2011, is thus strategic and timely. At the request of the G8, this report provides an analytical framework for increasing trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) for Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia (the Partnership countries). Increased trade and FDI is a key means by which Partnership countries can achieve a path of sustainable growth that reduces youth unemployment. Moreover, trade and investment can also show short-term results. The G8 countries, Turkey, the Gulf states, and other Deauville partners can help the new Arab democracies achieve their objectives in two main ways: by effectively expanding market opportunities and by supporting domestic regulatory reforms. To start implementing a long-term vision of increased trade and investment integration, based on an integrated economic space in the Mediterranean basin, the Deauville Partnership could focus on five priority areas. These are helping Partnership countries adapt to a fast-changing trade, FDI, and jobs landscape; improving market access opportunities and market regulations; fostering competitiveness, diversification, and employment; facilitating trade and mobilizing trade finance and diaspora resources; and promoting inclusiveness, equity, and sustainability of the structural transformation brought about by the process of integration. The success of the Arab political awakening will greatly depend on the emergence of such an economic awakening that can generate quality employment for the millions of young Arab men and women who seek jobs and a decent life.
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