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Calculated Risks

by Gerd Gigerenzer

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

For the Love of Language

by Kate Burridge Tonya N. Stebbins

Language is essential to human life, both as a basic social necessity and also as a powerful and complex social resource. For the Love of Language: An Introduction to Linguistics offers a comprehensive introduction to the workings of language and the role of linguistics in investigating its fundamental design. This thorough and engaging investigation into language and linguistics covers topics including: - strategies for learning about how language works - using linguistics to address real-world problems - the structure and meaning of words - the systems that organise language - changes to language over time - how language is used in written and spoken communication - the links between language, the mind and the world. Written by authors with extensive academic experience in the field of linguistics and including examples from Australia, New Zealand and around the world to engage the reader, For the Love of Language is a lively yet comprehensive resource for undergraduate students in foundation linguistics.

"Happiness Is Not My Companion"

by David M. Jordan

"Happiness Is Not My Companion"The Life of General G. K. WarrenDavid M. JordanThe valorous but troubled career of the Civil War general, best known for his quick action to defend Little Round Top and avert a Union defeat at Gettysburg.Gouverneur K. Warren, a brilliant student at West Point and a topographical engineer, earned early acclaim for his explorations of the Nebraska Territory and the Black Hills in the 1850s. With the start of the Civil War, Warren moved from teacher at West Point to lieutenant colonel of a New York regiment and was soon a rising star in the Army of the Potomac. His fast action at Little Round Top, bringing Federal troops to an undefended position before the Confederates could seize it, helped to save the Battle of Gettysburg. For his service at Bristoe Station and Mine Run, he was awarded command of the Fifth Corps for the 1864 Virginia campaign. Warren's peculiarities of temperament and personality put a cloud over his service at the Wilderness and Spotsylvania and cost him the confidence of his superiors, Grant and Meade. He was summarily relieved of his command by Philip Sheridan after winning the Battle of Five Forks, just eight days before Appomattox. Warren continued as an engineer of distinction in the Army after the war, but he was determined to clear his name before a board of inquiry, which conducted an exhaustive investigation into the battle, Warren's conduct, and Sheridan's arbitrary action. However, the findings of the court vindicating Warren were not made public until shortly after his death.For this major biography of Gouverneur Warren, David M. Jordan utilizes Warren's own voluminous collection of letters, papers, orders, and other items saved by his family, as well as the letters and writings of such contemporaries as his aide and brother-in-law Washington Roebling, Andrew Humphreys, Winfield Hancock, George Gordon Meade, and Ulysses S. Grant. Jordan presents a vivid account of the life and times of a complex military figure.David M. Jordan, a native of Philadelphia, a graduate of Princeton University, and a practicing attorney, has previously published biographies of New York political boss Roscoe Conkling, Union general Winfield Scott Hancock, and pitcher Hal Newhouser, as well as a history of the Philadelphia Athletics.May 2001400 pages, 13 b&w photos, 11 maps, 6 1/8 x 9 1/4, index, append.cloth 0-253-33904-9 $35.00 t / £26.50 ContentsCold Spring and West PointTopographical EngineerInto the West with HarneyThe Black HillsThe Explorer Becomes a SoldierOn the Virginia PeninsulaSecond Manassas to FredericksburgWith HookerTo Little Round TopThe Aftermath of GettysburgSecond Corps InterludeFallout 1863-1864Into the Dark WoodsBloody SpotsylvaniaAround Lee's RightStandoff at PetersburgThe Mine and the RailroadWest to Peebles' FarmTo the End of 1864Beginning of the EndTo the White Oak RoadAll Fools' DayA Soldier's Good NameAn Engineer, AgainNewportThe Court BeginsThe Court ResumesThe Lawyers Have Their SayThe Frustration of WaitingWhere Malevolence Cannot Reach

The Iron Road in the Prairie State

by Simon Cordery

In 1836, Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas agreed on one thing: Illinois needed railroads. Over the next fifty years, the state became the nation's railroad hub, with Chicago at its center. Speculators, greed, growth, and regulation followed as the railroad industry consumed unprecedented amounts of capital and labor. A nationwide market resulted, and the Windy City became the site of opportunities and challenges that remain to this day. In this first-of-its-kind history, full of entertaining anecdotes and colorful characters, Simon Cordery describes the explosive growth of Illinois railroads and its impact on America. Cordery shows how railroading in Illinois influenced railroad financing, the creation of a national economy, and government regulation of business. Cordery's masterful chronicle of rail development in Illinois from 1837 to 2010 reveals how the state's expanding railroads became the foundation of the nation's rail network.

Critical Reading in Higher Education

by Pat Hutchings Glen Ryland Melanie Rathburn Karen Manarin Miriam Carey

Faculty often worry that students can't or won't read critically, a foundational skill for success in academic and professional endeavors. "Critical reading" refers both to reading for academic purposes and reading for social engagement. This volume is based on collaborative, multidisciplinary research into how students read in first-year courses in subjects ranging from scientific literacy through composition. The authors discovered the good (students can read), the bad (students are not reading for social engagement), and the ugly (class assignments may be setting students up for failure) and they offer strategies that can better engage students and provide more meaningful reading experiences.

Deciphering the New Antisemitism

by Alvin H. Rosenfeld

Deciphering the New Antisemitism addresses the increasing prevalence of antisemitism on a global scale. Antisemitism takes on various forms in all parts of the world, and the essays in this wide-ranging volume deal with many of them: European antisemitism, antisemitism and Islamophobia, antisemitism and anti-Zionism, and efforts to demonize and delegitimize Israel. Contributors are an international group of scholars who clarify the cultural, intellectual, political, and religious conditions that give rise to antisemitic words and deeds. These landmark essays are noteworthy for their timeliness and ability to grapple effectively with the serious issues at hand.

Faked in China

by Fan Yang

Faked in China is a critical account of the cultural challenge faced by China following its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. It traces the interactions between nation branding and counterfeit culture, two manifestations of the globalizing Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) regime that give rise to competing visions for the nation. Nation branding is a state-sanctioned policy, captured by the slogan "From Made in China to Created in China," which aims to transform China from a manufacturer of foreign goods into a nation that creates its own IPR-eligible brands. Counterfeit culture is the transnational making, selling, and buying of unauthorized products. This cultural dilemma of the postsocialist state demonstrates the unequal relations of power that persist in contemporary globalization.

White Robes, Silver Screens

by Tom Rice

The Ku Klux Klan was reestablished in Atlanta in 1915, barely a week before the Atlanta premiere of The Birth of a Nation, D. W. Griffith's paean to the original Klan. While this link between Griffith's film and the Klan has been widely acknowledged, Tom Rice explores the little-known relationship between the Klan's success and its use of film and media in the interwar years when the image, function, and moral rectitude of the Klan was contested on the national stage. By examining rich archival materials including a series of films produced by the Klan and a wealth of documents, newspaper clippings, and manuals, Rice uncovers the fraught history of the Klan as a local force that manipulated the American film industry to extend its reach across the country. White Robes, Silver Screens highlights the ways in which the Klan used, produced, and protested against film in order to recruit members, generate publicity, and define its role within American society.

Kierkegaard's Writings, XIII

by Howard V. Hong Edna H. Hong Søren Kierkegaard

The Corsair affair has been called the "most renowned controversy in Danish literary history." At the center is Søren Kierkegaard, whose pseudonymous Stages on Life's Way occasioned a frivolous and dishonorable review by Peder Ludvig Møller. Møller was associated with The Corsair, a publication notorious for gossip and caricature. The editor was Meïr Goldschmidt, an acquaintance of Kierkegaard's and an admirer of his early work. Kierkegaard struck back at not only Møller and Goldschmidt but at the paper as a whole. The present volume contains all of the documents relevant to this dispute, plus a historical introduction that recapitulates the sequence of events surrounding the controversy. Parts I (Article) and II (Addenda) contain articles both signed by and attributed to Kierkegaard in response to the affair. A supplement includes writings pertaining to the Corsair affair by Goldschmidt and Møller, as well as unpublished pieces by Kierkegaard from his journals and papers. Although the immediate occasion was literary, for Kierkegaard the issues as well as the consequences were ethical, social, philosophical, and religious. Howard Hong argues that the most important consequence was wholly unexpected and unintended: the second phase of Kierkegaard's authorship.

Darkest Before Dawn (KGI #10)

by Maya Banks

THE ALL-NEW KGI NOVEL from the "incredibly awesome" (Jaci Burton) #1 New York Times bestselling author of When Day Breaks.The Kelly Group International (KGI): A super-elite, top secret, family-run business.Qualifications: High intelligence, rock-hard body, military background.Mission: Hostage/kidnap victim recovery. Intelligence gathering. Handling jobs the U.S. government can't...The enigmatic Hancock has been both opponent and ally to the KGI teams for as long as they've known him. Always working a deep game, Hancock's true allegiance has never been apparent, but one thing is for certain--he never lets anything get in the way of duty.But now, his absolute belief in the primacy of his ultimate goal is challenged by a captive he's been ordered to guard, no matter how much she suffers in her prison. She's the only woman who's ever managed to penetrate the rigid walls surrounding his icy heart, but will he allow his perplexing feelings for the beautiful victim to destroy a mission he's spent years working to complete or will he be forced to sacrifice her for "the greater good."From the Paperback edition.

The Girl You Left Behind

by Jojo Moyes

Another New York Times bestseller by the author of Me Before You, After You, and One Plus One--a spellbinding story of two women united in their fight for what they love most. Jojo Moyes's word-of-mouth bestseller, Me Before You, catapulted her to wide critical acclaim and struck a chord with a wide range of readers everywhere. Now, with The Girl You Left Behind, Moyes returns with another irresistible heartbreaker--a breathtaking story of love, loss, and sacrifice told with her signature ability to capture our hearts. Paris, 1916. Sophie Lefèvre must keep her family safe while her adored husband, Édouard, fights at the front. When their town falls to the Germans in the midst of World War I, Sophie is forced to serve them every evening at her hotel. From the moment the new Kommandant sets eyes on Sophie's portrait--painted by her artist husband--a dangerous obsession is born, one that will lead Sophie to make a dark and terrible decision. Almost a century later, Sophie's portrait hangs in the home of Liv Halston, a wedding gift from her young husband before his sudden death. After a chance encounter reveals the portrait's true worth, a battle begins over its troubled history and Liv's world is turned upside all over again.From the Trade Paperback edition.

Christmas at the Beach (Novella)

by Wendy Wax

A TEN BEACH ROAD NOVELLAThe USA Today bestselling Wendy Wax entranced audiences with Ten Beach Road and Ocean Beach. Now, the ladies of Bella Flora are back in an all-new holiday novella.When Madeline Singer, Avery Lawford, and Nicole Grant first gained ownership of Ten Beach Road, they didn't realize that remodeling the house would not only bind their fates together but give them a second chance at rebuilding their lives.Now they're gathering at the newly sold Bella Flora for one last Christmas. Kyra, Madeline's daughter, is hoping to get a brief respite from the paparazzi that constantly hounds her and the son she had with famous actor Daniel Deranian. But when a string of bad news threatens to disrupt her happy holidays, Bella Flora's sanctuary may be threatened for all of the women who call it home...

Me Before You

by Jojo Moyes

The beloved New York Times bestseller--with more than five million copies sold. The stunning sequel, After You, is available now. They had nothing in common until love gave them everything to lose . . . Louisa Clark is an ordinary girl living an exceedingly ordinary life--steady boyfriend, close family--who has barely been farther afield than their tiny village. She takes a badly needed job working for ex-Master of the Universe Will Traynor, who is wheelchair bound after an accident. Will has always lived a huge life--big deals, extreme sports, worldwide travel--and now he's pretty sure he cannot live the way he is. Will is acerbic, moody, bossy--but Lou refuses to treat him with kid gloves, and soon his happiness means more to her than she expected. When she learns that Will has shocking plans of his own, she sets out to show him that life is still worth living. A Love Story for this generation, Me Before You brings to life two people who couldn't have less in common--a heartbreakingly romantic novel that asks, What do you do when making the person you love happy also means breaking your own heart?From the Trade Paperback edition.

Eleanor Roosevelt

by Blanche Wiesen Cook

Historians, politicians, feminists, critics, and reviewers everywhere have praised Blanche Wiesen Cook's monumental Eleanor Roosevelt as the definitive portrait of this towering female figure of the twentieth century. Now in her long-awaited, majestic second volume, Cook takes readers through the tumultuous era of the Great Depression, the New Deal, and the gathering storms of World War II, the years of the Roosevelts' greatest challenges and finest achievements. In her remarkably engaging narrative, Cook gives us the complete Eleanor Roosevelt-- an adventurous, romantic woman, a devoted wife and mother, and a visionary policymaker and social activist who often took unpopular stands, counter to her husband's policies, especially on issues such as racial justice and women's rights. A biography of scholarship and daring, it is a book for all readers of American history.

Open Season

by C. J. Box

Joe Pickett is the new game warden in Twelve Sleep, Wyoming, a town where nearly everyone hunts and the game warden--especially one like Joe who won't take bribes or look the other way--is far from popular. When he finds a local hunting outfitter dead, splayed out on the woodpile behind his state-owned home, he takes it personally. There had to be a reason that the outfitter, with whom he's had run-ins before, chose his backyard, his woodpile to die in. Even after the "outfitter murders," as they have been dubbed by the local press after the discovery of the two more bodies, are solved, Joe continues to investigate, uneasy with the easy explanation offered by the local police.As Joe digs deeper into the murders, he soon discovers that the outfitter brought more than death to his backdoor: he brought Joe an endangered species, thought to be extinct, which is now living in his woodpile. But if word of the existence of this endangered species gets out, it will destroy any chance of InterWest, a multi-national natural gas company, building an oil pipeline that would bring the company billions of dollars across Wyoming, through the mountains and forests of Twelve Sleep. The closer Joe comes to the truth behind the outfitter murders, the endangered species and InterWest, the closer he comes to losing everything he holds dear.

Double Whammy

by Carl Hiaasen

R.J. Decker, star tenant of the local trailer park and neophyte private eye is fishing for a killer. Thanks to a sportsman's scam that's anything but sportsmanlike, there's a body floating in Coon Bog, Florida -- and a lot that's rotten in the murky waters of big-stakes, large-mouth bass tournaments. Here Decker will team up with a half-blind, half-mad hermit with an appetite for road kill; dare to kiss his ex-wife while she's in bed with her new husband; and face deadly TV evangelists, dangerously seductive women, and a pistol-toting redneck with a pit bull on his arm. And here his own life becomes part of the stakes. For while the "double whammy" is the lure, first prize is for the most ingenious murder.

Storms of Victory (Witch World: The Turning #1)

by Andre Norton P. M. Griffin

In the wake of their defeat of Pagin of Karsten, the Witches of Estcarp await news of those who have been lost or gone missing since the battle, and a young Sulcar woman awakens to her Power--only to do battle with an ancient evil.

Suspicion of Vengeance

by Barbara Parker

In the sixth title in the Suspicion series, Suspicion of Vengeance, Gail Connor takes on a hot potato of a case when new evidence comes to light and she agrees to guide the appeal of a man convicted years ago of a brutal murder. The transcripts show that he was wrongfully convicted, but they offer no indication of the further crimes that will be committed to leave the verdict intact.

Suspicion of Betrayal

by Barbara Parker

In the fourth title in the Suspicion series, Suspicion of Betrayal, Gail Connor thinks she has achieved all her life goals with a successful career, a perfect home, and an ideal man, until an anonymous and menacing phone call, obscene letters, and threats to her eleven-year-old daughter endanger the very foundations of her life and begin to reveal the secrets of her past.

Heaven on Earth

by Constance O'Day-Flannery

Working in the accounting department of a large soap manufacturer isn't exactly where Casey O'Reilly saw her life as going. She had always pictured something more glamorous, more exciting. But, she never pictured something so exciting as time travel.A freak lightning strike near Sante Fe somehow sends Casey back to the year 1878. Thrown into vibrant yet unfamiliar past, Casey finds herself lost and alone. That is, until a mysterious man named Luke arrives, claiming to be a time traveler himself. He wants to guide Casey on her journey, even arranging for her to be the guest of an aristocratic Hispanic family. Will Casey be able to handle the shock of traveling back in time? Will she finally take control of her life and realize that love is staring her right in the face?In HEAVEN ON EARTH, Constance O'Day-Flannery, the original "Queen of Time Travel Romance," shows readers that true love can lead us toward our destinies... even if those destinies are lifetimes apart.

The New Neighbor

by Ray Garton

The Pritchard family is quite content in their home on Deerfield Avenue . . . until Lorelle Dupree moves in across the street. The new neighbor is astonishingly beautiful . . . friendly . . . and seductive. Each member of the Pritchard family surrenders to her advances and Lorelle's influence changes them in shocking ways. Soon everyone on Deerfield is changing. And then the killings start. The new neighbor is not interested in borrowing a cup of sugar or using your weed-whacker. She's more interested in your soul.

Walker's Widow

by Heidi Betts

Best-selling author Heidi Betts is known as a versatile author, who writes what she loves...and makes readers fall in love all over again. Whether she's writing contemporary romance, paranormal, or historical, Heidi Betts never disappoints.Clayton Walker had been sent to Purgatory...but it felt more like hell. Assigned to solve a string of minor burglaries, the rugged Texas Ranger thought catching the crook would be a walk in the park. Instead he found himself chasing a black-masked bandit with enticing hips and a penchant for helping everyone but herself. And Clay swore he would see justice done, even if he had to shackle the beauty to him for the rest of his life. With quick fingers and a lithe body, Regan Doyle's nocturnal activities knew no boundaries; decked out in black, the young widow made sure the rich "donated" to the local orphanage - whether they wanted to or not. And the fiery redhead wasn't about to let a lawman get in her way - even if his broad shoulders and piercing gray eyes were as arresting as the badge pinned to his chest. But caught in a compromising position - one that revealed far more than her colorful undergarments - Regan recognized that the jig was up ... for Clay had stolen her heart."Heidi Betts scores with a sizzling tale of passion, intrigue, and enduring love." -- Merline Lovelace"For a good story and unforgettable characters, you can't beat Heidi Betts. Hang on to your stetson...." -- Maggie Osborne

The Mummy, the Will, and the Crypt

by John Bellairs

In this, the second book in the Johnny Dixon mystery series, Johnny must find the lost will of Mr. H. Bagwell Glomus, a man of great fortune and sinister witchcraft. Mr. Glomus's widow is offering a $10,000 reward to anyone who finds its hiding place, enough money to help Johnny's grandmother get the operation she needs. So, Johnny will stop at nothing to find the will.With his neighbor, Professor Childermass, and his new friend Fergie, Johnny won't rest until he solves the puzzle. From Boy Scout camp to hotel windows to underground passageways, Johnny races to find the right clues, all the while with the supernatural nipping at his heels..."The pace is fast and the suspense is compelling. Readers will find themselves quickly caught up." --Booklist"Marvelous surprises for everyone except the villians." --Publishers Weekly

The Warriors of God

by William Christie

This acclaimed 1992 thriller amazingly anticipated the terrorist scourge of the next decade. Now brought up to date by the author and available again as Iran defies the world by pursuing nuclear weapons, it's plot may just be the stuff of tomorrow's headlines.The long-simmering conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran finally turns hot with an act of terrorism against a U.S. navy ship in the Persian Gulf. American military retaliation shuts down Iranian oil production, and it is war. But not the war we've known in the past. Not the war of armies, ships, and planes. No, the war we've come to know today. The war of the weak against the strong. War in the shadows. With battles aimed not at the destroying the enemy's armies, but bent on making headlines.A handpicked team of elite Iranian commandos are silently making their way to the United States. To Washington D.C. Their target is the President of the United States. In the White House.Major Ali Khurbasi of the Iranian Army leads the assault team. Tough, experienced, American-educated and ready to die for a mission whose wisdom he secretly doubts. Former Marine officer Richard Welsh is the Pentagon liaison to the FBI investigation that begins once it is clear that some violent force has landed on our shores. It is a headlong race as the Iranians fight to reach their objective and the elite of America's law enforcement and military struggle to stop them.The White House was burned by the British Army in the War of 1812, an act that shook the new American nation to its core. Could such a thing happen again?Because if the most powerful man in the world is not safe in the most famous and heavily defended building in the nation, then who of us is?

Swords and Ice Magic (Fafhrd and the Gray Mouser #6)

by Fritz Leiber

While THE LORD OF THE RINGS took the world by storm, Fritz Leiber's fantastic but thoroughly flawed anti-heroes, Fafhrd and Gray Mouser, adventured and stumbled deep within the caves of Inner Earth as well. They wondered and wandered to the edges of the Outer Sea, across the Land of Nehwon and throughout every nook and cranny of gothic Lankhmar, Nehwon's grandest and most mystically corrupt city. Lankhmar, is Leiber's fully-realized, vivid incarnation of urban decay and civilization's corroding effect on the human psyche. Fafhrd and Mouse are not innocents; their world is no land of honor and righteousness. It is a world of human complexities and violent action, of discovery and mystery, of swords and sorcery. In SWORDS AND ICE MAGIC, Fafhrd and Gray Mouser discover how the sadness of The Executioner creates a macabre dance from the point of view of the choreographer. Beauties and beasts explain the dual nature of all life's creatures. And trapped in The Shadowland, our dogmatic duo find the duality of swords and needles, maps and territories, girls and demons...and gods, they learn of the mischievous vanity of the gods. Lost at sea, Gray Mouser becomes a natural philosopher, drifting, captive of the Great Equatorial Current. He wonders about fire and ice, about women and men until they arrive at Rime Isle, a tragic comedy of a place, wandering gods and restless mortals, a comedy with puppets and puppet-masters.

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