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What assumptions and methods allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and how can even incomplete causal knowledge be used in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment? In this book Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines address these questions using the formalism of Bayes networks, with results that have been applied in diverse areas of research in the social, behavioral, and physical sciences. The authors show that although experimental and observational study designs may not always permit the same inferences, they are subject to uniform principles. They axiomatize the connection between causal structure and probabilistic independence, explore several varieties of causal indistinguishability, formulate a theory of manipulation, and develop asymptotically reliable procedures for searching over equivalence classes of causal models, including models of categorical data and structural equation models with and without latent variables. The authors show that the relationship between causality and probability can also help to clarify such diverse topics in statistics as the comparative power of experimentation versus observation, Simpson's paradox, errors in regression models, retrospective versus prospective sampling, and variable selection. The second edition contains a new introduction and an extensive survey of advances and applications that have appeared since the first edition was published in 1993.
After the destruction of the Civil War, the United States faced the immense challenge of rebuilding a ravaged South and incorporating millions of freed slaves into the life of the nation. On April 11, 1865, President Lincoln introduced his plan for reconstruction, warning that the coming years would be "fraught with great difficulty." Three days later he was assassinated. The years to come witnessed a time of complex and controversial change.From the Hardcover edition.
Create a mutually beneficial partnership between nonprofit and for-profit enterprises Cause marketing creates a partnership with benefits for both a nonprofit entity and a business. Written by an expert on cause marketing whose blog, SelfishGiving. com, is a key resource on the subject, this friendly guide shows both business owners and marketers for nonprofits how to build and sustain such a partnership using social media such as Facebook and Twitter. It covers new online tools, how to identify potential partners, tips on engaging your fans, and how to model a campaign on proven successes. Cause marketing is not marketing a cause, but a partnership between business and nonprofit that benefits both This guide offers an easy-to-understand blueprint for finding appropriate partners, planning and setting up a campaign using Facebook, Twitter, and blogs, measuring campaign success, and more Explains online tools such as Quick Response Codes, services like Causon and The Point, and location marketing services including Foursquare, Whrrl, and Gowalla Features case studies that illustrate successful campaign techniques Cause Marketing For Dummies helps both businesses and nonprofits reap the benefits of effective cause marketing.
It is New Year's Eve, the last day of Virginia's bloodiest year since the civil war. Dr. Kay Scarpetta plunges into the murky depths of a ship graveyard to recover the very human remains of Ted Eddings, an investigative reporter. What kind of story was Eddings chasing below the icy surface of the Elizabeth River? And why did Scarpetta receive a phone call from someone reporting the death before the police were notified? She soon discovers that Eddings' murder is merely the first layer of something much deeper-- a labyrinthine conspiracy that will put all of her criminal and forensic knowledge to the test like never before. For Scarpetta, the real challenge won't be cataloging the growing number of dead bodies, but preventing herself and those she loves from becoming the next victims.
Orphaned and torn from his sisters as a boy, sexy extreme wrestler Dean "Havoc" Conor gets a letter revealing how much his siblings want him back in Harmony, Kentucky. To stop his sister from marrying a sleazeball, Dean finds himself teaming up with her pretty-but-smart-mouthed friend Eve-who's heard of Havoc's reputation and doesn't need some hunk trampling on her heart. Now all Dean has to do is protect his sisters, win Eve over, and expose a devious criminal. And he thought winning the heavyweight belt was hard.
In 1631, at the epicenter of the worst excesses of the European witch-hunts, Friedrich Spee, a Jesuit priest, published the Cautio Criminalis, a book speaking out against the trials that were sending thousands of innocent people to gruesome deaths. Spee, who had himself ministered to women accused of witchcraft in Germany, had witnessed firsthand the twisted logic and brutal torture used by judges and inquisitors. Combined, these harsh prosecutorial measures led inevitably not only to a confession but to denunciations of supposed accomplices, spreading the circle of torture and execution ever wider.Driven by his priestly charge of enacting Christian charity, or love, Spee sought to expose the flawed arguments and methods used by the witch-hunters. His logic is relentless as he reveals the contradictions inherent in their arguments, showing there is no way for an innocent person to prove her innocence. And, he questions, if the condemned witches truly are guilty, how could the testimony of these servants and allies of Satan be reliable? Spee's insistence that suspects, no matter how heinous the crimes of which they are accused, possess certain inalienable rights is a timeless reminder for the present day.The Cautio Criminalis is one of the most important and moving works in the history of witch trials and a revealing documentation of one man's unexpected humanity in a brutal age. Marcus Hellyer's accessible translation from the Latin makes it available to English-speaking audiences for the first time.Studies in Early Modern German History
In a calm and patient manner, Dr. McConnell lays out a step-by-step program for helping dogs overcome their fears. Although this is a detailed training manual, it is both easy to read and easy to use. McConnell is a wel-known, highly-credentialed behaviorist who has specialized in helping family pets to become well-adjusted and happy canines. Gentle and sensible methods are presented here. Also available from Bookshare: "The Other End of the Leash."
Jemima starts researching a ghost story involving a murder investigation. The victims: the 17th Viscount Lackland and his butler. The suspect is the ghost of the first Viscount Lackland. The next possible victim is the handsome 18th Viscount Lackland.
With the confidence and personality of a dog many times his size, the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel is one of the world's most beloved toy breeds, continuing to rank as the most popular toy breed in his land of origin, "that sceptered isle," England. Author Juliette Cunliffe, a British dog specialist, well describes this charming and elegant purebred dog in this Comprehensive Owner's Guide, beginning with the breed's history and development in the U.K. and tracing the Cav to the U.S., where it has become a favorite choice as a purebred pet. The chapter on characteristics includes a discussion of the breed's physical traits, IQ, health considerations, and personality. New owners will welcome the well-prepared chapter on finding a reputable breeder and selecting a healthy, sound puppy. Chapters on puppy-proofing the home and yard, purchasing the right supplies for the puppy as well as house-training, feeding, and grooming are illustrated with photographs of handsome adults and puppies. In all, there are over 135 full-color photographs in this useful and reliable volume. The author's advice on obedience training will help the reader better mold and train into the most well-mannered dog in the neighborhood. The extensive and lavishly illustrated chapter on healthcare provides up-to-date detailed information on selecting a qualified veterinarian, vaccinations, preventing and dealing with parasites, infectious diseases, and more. Sidebars throughout the text offer helpful hints, covering topics as diverse as historical dogs, breeders, or kennels, toxic plants, first aid, crate training, carsickness, fussy eaters, and parasite control. Fully indexed.
Dedicated to the world's most elegant, intelligent, and affectionate toy dog, the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel, this Smart Owner's Guide, created by the editors at Dog Fancy magazine, offers the most up-to-date and accurate information every dog owner needs to become a well-informed caregiver for his dog. Illustrated with color photographs of adorable puppies and handsome adults, this easy-to-read primer is designed in a modern, lively manner that readers will find user-friendly and entertaining.Each Smart Owner's Guide offers a description of the breed's character and physical conformation, historical overview, and its attributes as a companion dog. The reader will find informative chapters on everything he or she needs to know about acquiring, raising, and training this remarkable purebred dog, including: finding a breeder and selecting a healthy, sound puppy; preparing for the puppy's homecoming, shopping for supplies, and puppy-proofing the home; house-training; veterinary and home health maintenance; feeding and nutrition; and grooming. Obedience training for basic cues (sit, stay, heel, come, etc.) and solving potential problem behaviors (barking, chewing, aggression, jumping up, etc.) are addressed in separate chapters, as are activities to enjoy with the dog, including showing, agility, therapy work, and more.Entertaining tidbits and smart advice fill up colorful sidebars in every chapter, which the editors call "It's a Fact," "Smart Tip," "Notable & Quotable," and "Did You Know?" Real-life heroes and rescue stories are retold in full-page features called "Pop Pups" and "True Tails." Recipes, training, and care tips are highlighted in the "Try This" feature pages.The Smart Owner's Guide series is the only series that offers readers an online component in which dog owners can join a breed-specific online club hosted by dogchannel.com. At Club Cav, owners of the breed can find forums, blogs, and profiles to connect with other breed owners, as well as charts and checklists that can be downloaded. More than just 20,000 pages of solid information, there's a host of fun to be had at the club in the form of downloadable breed-specific e-cards, screensavers, games, and quizzes.The Resources section of the book includes contact information for breed-related organizations and rescues, as well as practical guidance on traveling with dogs, identification, and locating qualified professionals to assist the dog owner, such as pet sitters, trainers, and boarding facilities. This information-packed Smart Owner's Guide is fully indexed.
Rich sampling of more than 120 works -- characteristically charming, witty and graceful -- by poets associated with the court of Charles I of England: Robert Herrick, Thomas Carew, Sir John Suckling and Richard Lovelace. Includes Herrick's "To the Virgins to Make Much of Time," Suckling's "Why so pale and wan, fond lover?" and more.
The Cavalry at Gettysburg: A Tactical Study of Mounted Operations during the Civil War's Pivotal Campaign 9 June-14 July 1863by Edward G. Longacre
Cavalry strategies and actions in the Gettysburg campaign with evaluations of the commanders involved.
The past never dies...but it can kill Esteban Fernandez has only one reason to live-and that reason vanishes when his cover is blown. As an undercover narcotics detective, Esteban wants to hunt the scum who killed his brother-and put his stepfather in prison for life. Reassigned and rootless, the brooding detective couldn't care less about the sexy cop he's now paired with...until they start finding bodies.Kari Cavanaugh didn't ask for a new partner. Competent and self-contained, Kari makes the best of any situation-by herself. But when a series of murders points toward a serial killer, her new sidekick may have insights into the case. If only the heat rising between them didn't spark its own danger.
Aurora's finest are back in action! Why are too many healthy seniors dying in nursing homes? Vice detective Noelle O'Banyon can't let the mystery go. And though she has no business working a homicide case, the love-shy single mom draws partner Duncan Cavanaugh into her rogue investigation. He's a notorious player she thoroughly disdains-and the feeling's mutual. Duncan considers Noelle too straightlaced for his taste. But as they uncover the shocking scandal behind the mysterious deaths, the crime-fighting pair become closer-and passionately in sync. Now, before a killer stops their bliss, can he and Noelle prevent the next murder in Aurora?
Burnt out psychologist Helen Myrer decides to take a much-needed vacation in the remote New Hampshire woods. But lying in wait for her is Kevin McCallum--a psychopathic killer who has targeted her as his next victim. With her car disabled and phone lines cut, Helen flees, but Kevin has anticipated her every move. The game of cat and mouse ultimately leads to an immense and terrifying cave where Helen must use all her therapeutic skills, experience, and guile to escape her tormentor's sadistic plans.
As drought and the Depression threaten to destroy her family's South Dakota farm, twelve-year-old Christine discovers a wondrous cave, which becomes both her own private delight and a possible salvation for the family.
"Latin may be called a dead language, but it is currently experiencing a renaissance. In this spirit, Oxford-trained classicist Lorna Robinson introduces readers to the wonderful, chimeric world of the Latin language--and what better forum for this than the world of ancient Rome, where Latin flowered and expanded with the Roman Empire to become Europe's dominant language." -Back Cover
Twelve-year-old Dominique fails to complete a deadly serious ritual and is banished from his place with the Estorian people, a tribe of nomadic storytellers. He must travel alone to a distant cave where, it is believed, he will find the voice he has always longed for. His quest takes him to far-off lands where he must do battle with a mighty river serpent, outwit pungent yagabonos, and survive capture by a group of powerful leranons. Inspired by the creatures and legends of a variety of mythologies, Nikki Tate has created a world where there is no greater honor -- and no greater challenge -- than being a magnificent storyteller. The first novel in the "Estorian Chronicles" trilogy, Cave of Departure introduces a feisty young word warrior and his female counterpart, Amana, the Campriano, whose relentless search for the truth is destined to change Dominique's life forever.
The Cave of John the Baptist: The First Archaeological Evidence of the Historical Reality of the Gospel Storyby Shimon Gibson
The first archaeological evidence of the historical reality of the Gospel story. From a historical point of view, the uniqueness of this cave is that it contains archaeological evidence that comes to us from the very time of the personalities and events described in the Gospels. For here is the largest ritual bathing pool ever found in the Jerusalem area, and found in the village where John the Baptist was born, showing unmistakable signs of ritual use in the first century AD. Also in the cave is the earliest ever Christian art, depicting John the Baptist as well as the three crosses of the crucifixion. By using the forensic techniques available to the modern archaeologist, Gibson and his international team have been able to draw information from the drawings, pottery, coins, bones, remains of ritual fire and pieces of cloth found in the cave and match these up with the contemporary literary sources. This is a unique opportunity to build up a picture of the very first Christians, how they lived and even what they believed. As Gibson writes:"By fitting together the new archaeological facts with the historical information available (and sometimes buried) in scholarly literature, I believe I am able to throw an amazing amount of light on the personality and mission of John the Baptist. Who was he? Where did he come from? What were his beliefs and what was the baptism all about?" From the Hardcover edition.
Old Earth is gone. Humanity has been scattered to the stars. Some left their dying planet in spaceship arks, in search of new worlds to inhabit. Others, nanoengineered for near-immortality, explore the far reaches of interstellar space in gargantuan macrolife mobiles.An earth-like human society endures on the environmentally volatile planet of Tau Ceti IV--a rigid community of the faithful that has declared evil the science that caused the homeworld's destruction. The Church is the absolute power here; obedience and belief the rule. But His Holiness Peter III, the New Vatican's most powerful figure, himself harbors doubts, engendered by his love for his unacknowledged and illegitimate rebel daughter Josepha. And suddenly there is another assault on his tottering faith--and on the sacred traditions he has devoted his life to uphold. For an emissary, Voss Rhazes, has arrived from one of old Earth's journeying mobiles--the first off-planet human visitor ever to Tau Ceti--bearing remarkable hated technology that could shred the fragile emotional fabric of a family...and bring devastating chaos to their world.
Nobody said New York City was easy, but for Tolley Holtz, it's home Tolley Holtz would rather be exploring the city with his friends, talking about the Yankees, and discussing what President Roosevelt is going to do about the Depression than watching his little brother, Bubber. With his mother working all day in a garment factory and his father looking for work in Baltimore, Tolley's family depends on him. But suddenly, things go from hard to unthinkable. When his mother gets pneumonia and can't leave the hospital, Tolley becomes the only family Bubber can rely on. Afraid that the children's shelter will split them up, the two brothers hop a crosstown bus and strike out on their own, up and down fire escapes, across rooftops, and into the cellars and shadows of New York City. Tolley will need all the street smarts he's ever learned to get them through the winter--and to hold on to his dreams of having a family again.
With their mother in the hospital and their father's whereabouts unknown, two boys take to the streets of New York to escape being sent to a children's shelter.
When Delia Byrd packs up her old Datsun and her daughter Cissy and gets on the Santa Monica Freeway heading south and east, she is leaving everything she has known for ten years: the tinsel glitter of the rock 'n' roll world; her dreams of singing and songwriting; and a life lived on credit cards and whiskey with a man who made promises he couldn't keep. Delia Byrd is going back to Cayro, Georgia, to reclaim her life--and the two daughters she left behind... <P> Told in the incantatory voice of one of America's most eloquent storytellers, Cavedweller is a sweeping novel of the human spirit, the lost and hidden recesses of the heart, and the place where violence and redemption intersect.
Victoria hates nonsense. There is no need for it when your life is perfect. The only smudge on her pristine life is her best friend Lawrence. He is a disaster--lazy and dreamy, shirt always untucked, obsessed with his silly piano. Victoria often wonders why she ever bothered being his friend. (Lawrence does too.) But then Lawrence goes missing. And he's not the only one. Victoria soon discovers that The Cavendish Home for Boys and Girls is not what it appears to be. Kids go in but come out...different. Or they don't' come out at all. If anyone can sort this out, it's Victoria--even if it means getting a little messy.
In the Known Lands, it is said that when one powerful prophecy dies in its fulfilling, yet another is born. In the land where Jack, the baker's boy, successfully fulfilled his destiny, a new prophecy arises in the harsh, exotic lands to the north. Two young residents of the Northern Territories, Rail Sevrance, a member of the Clan Blackhail, and Ash March, a girl who is suddenly overcome by powerful, ominous dreams, find themselves mysteriously drawn together. Swept up in a series of events that will bring their peoples into a vast war, the two encounter dark magic, great bravery, and unimaginable danger, as the first part of J. V. Jones' new masterpiece roars to its stunning conclusion.
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