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American Public Support for U.S. Military Operations from Mogadishu to Baghdad

by Bogdan Savych Eric V. Larson

The support of the American public is widely held to be a critical prerequisite for undertaking military action abroad. This monograph describes American public opinion toward wars and other large military operations over the last decade, to delineate the sources of support and opposition for each war or operation, to identify the principal fault lines in support, and to illuminate those factors that are consistent predictors of support for and opposition to military operations.

Assessing Irregular Warfare

by Eric V. Larson Derek Eaton Brian Nichiporuk Thomas S. Szayna

Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.

China and India, 2025

by Eric V. Larson Siddhartha Dalal Alisher Akhmedjonov Julie Davanzo Charles Wolf Jr.

China and India, the world's two most populous countries, will exercise increasing influence in international affairs in the coming decades. This document assesses the relative prospects of China and India through 2025 in four domains: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology, and defense spending and procurement. In each domain, the authors try to answer the following questions: Who is ahead? By how much? and Why?

Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime

by Eric V. Larson Bogdan Savych

This monograph, part of a larger study of ways to reduce collateral damage undertaken for the U.S. Air Force, analyzes media and public reactions to civilian casualty incidents, whether these incidents affect media reporting or public support for military operations, and, if so, how. It analyzes case studies of incidents of civilian deaths in the February 1991 bombing of the Al Firdos bunker in the Gulf War, the April and May 1999 attacks on the Djakovica convoy and Chinese embassy during the war in Kosovo, the June 2002 attack involving an Afghan wedding party during operations in Afghanistan, and the March 2003 incident involving a large explosion in a crowded Baghdad marketplace to describe and explain how the U.S. and foreign media and publics have responded. For each case study, the study team examined press, public, and leadership responses to these incidents and found the following. First, while avoiding civilian casualties is important to the American public, it has realistic expectations about the actual possibilities for avoiding casualties. Second, the press reports heavily on civilian casualty incidents. Third, adversaries understand the public's sensitivities to civilian deaths and have sought to exploit them. Fourth, during armed conflict, the belief that the United States and its allies are trying to avoid casualties most affects support for U.S. military operations, both at home and abroad. Fifth, while strong majorities of Americans typically give U.S. military and political leaders the benefit of the doubt when civilian casualty incidents occur, this does not necessarily extend to foreign audiences. Sixth, when civilian casualty incidents occur, it is at least as important to get the story right as to get the story out. Finally, attention to and concern about civilian casualties both at home and abroad have increased in recent years and may continue to do so.

The Muslim World After 9/11

by Angel Rabasa Eric V. Larson Cheryl Y. Marcum Matthew Waxman

Momentous events since September 11, 2001-Operation Enduring Freedom, the global war on terrorism, and the war in Iraq-have dramatically altered the political environment of the Muslim world. Many of the forces influencing this environment, however, are the products of trends that have been at work for many decades. This book examines the major dynamics that drive changes in the religio-political landscape of the Muslim world-a vast and diverse region that stretches from Western Africa through the Middle East to the Southern Philippines and includes Muslim communities and diasporas throughout the world-and draws the implications of these trends for global security and U.S. and Western interests. It presents a typology of ideological tendencies in the different regions of the Muslim world and identifies the factors that produce religious extremism and violence. It assesses key cleavages along sectarian, ethnic, regional, and national lines and examines how those cleavages generate challenges and opportunities for the United States. Finally, the authors identify possible strategies and political and military options for the United States to pursue in response to changing conditions in this critical and volatile part of the world.

Preparing the U.S. Army for Homeland Security

by John E. Peters Eric V. Larson

Homeland security encompasses five distinct missions: domestic preparednessand civil support in case of attacks on civilians, continuity of government, continuity ofmilitary operations, border and coastal defense, and national missile defense. This reportextensively details four of those mission areas (national missile defense having beencovered in great detail elsewhere). The authors define homeland security and its missionareas, provide a methodology for assessing homeland security response options, and reviewrelevant trend data for each mission area. They also assess the adequacy of the doctrine,organizations, training, leadership, materiel, and soldier systems and provide illustrativescenarios to help clarify Army planning priorities. The report concludes with options andrecommendations for developing more cost-effective programs and recommends a planningframework that can facilitate planning to meet homeland security needs.

Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism

by Paul K. Davis Eric V. Larson Zachary Haldeman Mustafa Oguz Yashodhara Rana

Using and testing a conceptual model that draws on social science and particularly social movement theory, this volume examines public support for al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases, how their importance varied in each case, and how this understanding can inform strategy.

Understanding Commanders' Information Needs for Influence Operations

by Forrest E. Morgan Richard E. Darilek Brian Nichiporuk Dalia Dassa Kaye Eric V. Larson

Documents a study whose goals were to develop an understanding of commanders' information requirements for cultural and other "soft" factors in order to improve the effectiveness of combined arms operations, and to develop practical ways for commanders to integrate information and influence operations activities into combined arms planning/assessment in order to increase the usefulness to ground commanders of such operations.

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