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Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the air-delivered munitions mix challenge. RDM is quantitative, decision support methodology designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity. This proof-of-concept demonstration suggests that RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict versus the so-called Long War. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's investments in particular, RAND examined emerging domestic and regional nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries.
Changes in technology and adversary behavior will invariably produce new threats that must be assessed by defense and homeland security planners. An example of such a novel threat is the use of cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by terrorist groups. Individual threats cannot be assessed in isolation, however, since adversaries always have many options for staging attacks. To examine this threat, RAND utilized a ?red analysis of alternatives? approach, wherein the benefits, costs, and risks of different options are considered from the point of view of a potential adversary. For several types of attacks, the suitability of these systems was compared against other options. This approach can help defense planners understand how the capabilities that different attack modes provide address key adversary operational problems. Given the insights this analysis produced about when these systems would likely be preferred by an attacker, RAND explored defensive options to address the threat. UAVs and cruise missiles represent a ?niche threat? within a larger threat context; therefore, defenses were sought that provide common protection against both this and other asymmetric threats. The monograph concludes with a discussion of cross-cutting lessons about this threat and the assessment of novel threats in general.
The authors evaluate the use of small ships in theater security cooperation (TSC). They provide the U.S. Navy with a concept of operation for small ships in TSC, necessary small ship characteristics, a survey of suitable ships, and recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of TSC operations conducted with a small vessel. The report concludes that, with a mothership, the PC-1 Cyclone Class would be fully capable for use in TSC.