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Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies

by Walter L. Perry John Gordon

Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. They will most likely face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.

Disjointed War: Military Operations in Kosovo 1999

by Bruce R. Pirnie Walter L. Perry John G. Mcginn John Gordon Bruce Nardulli

An examination of the 1999 conflict in Kosovo, with a focus on joint military operations. The 1999 military operation against the Yugoslav Army in Kosovo suggests several areas in which Joint military operations were deficient. This study examined all aspects of the Kosovo conflict,including its political and historical underpinnings, in an attempt to understand these deficiencies and to recommend improvements. This document--provided in both a classified and unclassified version--is based on extensive original source documents and interviews with most of the principal participants, and serves as the definitive Army record on Kosovo. While the primary focus of the research was on U.S.Army involvement, it covered many other aspects of Operation Allied Force. Topics included NATO objectives in Operation Allied Force, air and ground planning, evolution of the air operation and its effects on fielded Yugoslav forces, Task Force Hawk, and peace operations. The 1999 military operation in Kosovo suggests several areas in which Joint military operations were deficient. This study examines all aspects of the Kosovo conflict, with a focus on U.S. Army involvement, including its political and historical underpinnings, in an attempt to understand these deficiencies and to recommend improvements.

Exploring Information Superiority

by Walter L. Perry John E. Boon David Signori

Assessing how technology contributes to information superiority and decision dominance a major challenge, in part because it demands quantitative measures for what are usually considered qualitative concepts. The authors have developed a mathematical framework to aid these efforts. Additional work, such as data fitting, experimentation, linking decisions and actions, historical analysis, and gaming will further advance knowledge in this area.

Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets

by Walter L. Perry Claude Berrebi Thomas Sullivan John Hollywood Parisa Roshan Ryan Andrew Brown Amber Jaycocks Lisa Miyashiro

As part of an exploration of ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, RAND conducted a proof-of-principle analysis of whether adding sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors would enhance the predictive ability of a methodology that focused on geospatial features. This test case focused on terrorist bombing incidents in Israel, but the findings indicate that the methodology merits further exploration.

PREDICTIVE POLICING: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

by Walter L. Perry Brian Mcinnis Carter C. Price Susan C. Smith John S. Hollywood

Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.

Toppling the Taliban

by Walter L. Perry David Kassing

On September 11, 2001, the United States was without a plan for military operations in Afghanistan. One was quickly created by the Defense Department and operations began October 7. The Taliban was toppled in less than two months. This report describes preparations at CENTCOM and elsewhere, Army operations and support activities, building a coalition, and civil-military operations in Afghanistan from October 2001 through June 2002.

Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies

by Keith Crane David C. Gompert Stuart E. Johnson Walter L. Perry John Gordon

In studying the withdrawal from Iraq, RAND assessed logistical constraints, trends in insurgent activity, the readiness of Iraqi security forces, and implications for the size of the residual U.S. force and for security in Iraq and the region. This report presents alternative schedules: one consistent with the Obama administration's intentions, one somewhat slower, and another faster. It also identifies steps to alleviate constraints and risks.

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