Pattern Recognition: How Our Mental Processes Increase the Likelihood of Making Flawed Decisions

By: Sydney Finkelstein and Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell

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Synopsis: Pattern recognition is a great friend to decision makers. It allows us to make (mostly) good judgments, filling in gaps in information based on our past experience. This process is not foolproof, however, and can cause failures in judgment if we're not careful, especially when we think we have sufficient relevant experience in situations when we do not. As the authors explain in this chapter, we need to identify when erroneous pattern recognition may occur and put in place some defenses to reduce the risk of making flawed decisions. They use the example of Quaker's failed acquisition of Snapple to illustrate the point. This chapter was originally published as chapter 2 of "Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep It From Happening to You."