The TRACE Econometric Model of the Canadian Economy

By: John A. Sawyer and John W.L. Winder and Nanda K. Choudhry and Yehuda Kotowitz

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Synopsis: The TRACE (Toronto annual Canadian econometric) model is an annual, non-linear econometric model of the Canadian economy designed primarily to forecast the statistics which appear in the principal tables of the Canadian National Income and Expenditure Accounts. TRACE is the first Canadian econometric model from which a published ex ante forecast has been made. In this book the authors describe the model and a high-speed computer. They show how the effects of alternative combinations of federal government policies can be examined by producing sets of conditional forecasts from the model. Both impact and long-run multiplier effects of changes in fiscal and monetary policy are derived from simulation experiments performed with the model. The results show the different effects that are obtained under régimes of fixed and floating foreign exchange rates. The book presents the economic theory underlying the model and provides information on estimates of the structural parameters of the Canadian economy. It will be of interest to those engaged in economic forecasting and policy analysis, as well as those studying macro-economic theory and econometric methods.