The Phosphorus Factbook: A Framework for Mid- and Long-Term Supply Security

By: Roland W. Scholz and Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer and Gerald Steiner and Michael Mew

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Synopsis: This book provides a conceptual framework, presenting a description and modelling of the regulating mechanisms of supply, demand and supply-demand dynamics, sketches the most relevant classification systems of phosphorus deposits and outlines how they are related and how they should be improved to provide reliable, comparable classification, which is accepted by mining companies, geological surveys, science, industry, politicians and the public. For anticipating how the phosphate reserves are increasing (by increasing market values of phosphorus), we use the Cumulative Availability Curve (CAC) approach. The presented data for supply and demand dynamics reveal that—given our current knowledge—due to the abundance of phosphate rock, sufficient phosphorus supply will be feasible for at least 1000 years. The book stresses desiderata in knowledge and technology development, particularly for the reduction of losses and thus a decrease of negative environmental impacts and an improvement of the use efficiency. The book is designed as a fact book. For all essential statements e.g.: Mineral phosphorus will be available for at least a millienium rather than 300 years. The total use efficiency of phosphorus is less than 10%, the reader will find solid scientific references or calculations which can be used by researchers, mineral industry and business actors, policymakers, governmental institutions, NGOs, etc.