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Today's top financial-risk professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and it puts us all at risk. This is the case that Riccardo Rebonato makes inPlight of the Fortune Tellers--and coming from someone who is both an experienced market professional and an academic, this heresy is worth listening to. Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning, and he shows us how to do it using probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory. This is the only way to effectively manage financial risk in a manner congruent with how human beings actually react to chance. Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about probability in financial-risk management. Risk managers have become obsessed with measuring risk and believe that these quantitative results bythemselvescan guide sound financial choices--but they can't. In this book, Rebonato offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution, one that seeks to remind us that managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellersis not only a book for the decision makers of Wall Street, it's a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. The stakes have never been higher--can you risk it?
The Elder Pliny's Natural History is one of the largest and most extraordinary works to survive from antiquity. It has often been referred to as an encyclopedia, usually without full awareness of what such a characterisation implies. In this book, Dr Doody examines this concept and its applicability to the work, paying far more attention than ever before to the varying ways in which it has been read during the last two thousand years, especially by Francis Bacon and Denis Diderot. This book makes a major contribution not just to the study of the Elder Pliny but to our understanding of the cultural processes of ordering knowledge widespread in the Roman Empire and to the reception of classical literature and ideas.
"There are ways to create, fix, steer and discover plots - ways which, over a writing life, you'd eventually puzzle out for yourself," writes Ansen Dibell. "They aren't laws. They're an array of choices, things to try, once you've put a name to the particular problem you're facing now. " That's what this book is about: identifying those choices (whose viewpoint? stop and explain now, or wait? how can this lead to that?), then learning what narrative problems they are apt to create and how to choose an effective strategy for solving them. The result? Strong, solid stories and novels that move. Inside you'll discover how to: test a story idea (using four simple questions) to see if it works convince your reader that not only is something happening, but that something's going to happen and it all matters intensely handle viewpoint shifts, flashbacks, and other radical jumps in your storyline weave plots with subplots get ready for and write your Big Scenes balance scene and summary narration to produce good pacing handle the extremes of melodrama by "faking out" your readers - making them watch your right hand while your left hand is doing something sneaky form subtle patterns with mirror characters and echoing incidents choose the best type of ending - linear or circular, happy or downbeat, or (with caution!) a trick ending Whether your fiction is short or long, subtle or direct, you'll learn to build strong plots that drive compelling, unforgettable stories your readers will love.
When the renowned aviation hero and rabid isolationist Charles A. Lindbergh defeated Franklin Roosevelt by a landslide in the 1940 presidential election, fear invaded every Jewish household in America. Not only had Lindbergh, in a nationwide radio address, publicly blamed the Jews for selﬁshly pushing America toward a pointless war with Nazi Germany, but upon taking ofﬁce as the thirty-third president of the United States, he negotiated a cordial "understanding" with Adolf Hitler, whose conquest of Europe and virulent anti-Semitic policies he appeared to accept without difﬁculty. What then followed in America is the historical setting for this startling new book by Pulitzer Prize-winner Philip Roth, who recounts what it was like for his Newark family - and for a million such families all over the country - during the menacing years of the Lindbergh presidency, when American citizens who happened to be Jews had every reason to expect the worst.
Have you run into writer's block? Not sure how to plot the next twist in your romance? Beat your block and keep things dramatic with The Everything® Writing Series: Plot Development for Romance Novels. You'll be able to get your story back on track with these helpful tips and ideas. With some quick reading, you'll be back to writing in no time.
Nero Wolfe and his sidekick, Archie Goodwin, are called in by a consortium of publishers and writers to investigate several cases of false plagiarism, but the probe soon becomes complicated by murder.
Short stories by authors such as Mary Higgins Clark, Lawrence Block, Edna Buchannan, Carol Higgins Clark, Janet Evanovich, Linda Fairstein, Walter Mosley, Nancy Pickard, Ann Rule, and Donald e. Westlake
The Plot to Save the Planetis an illuminating and inspiring look at the "conspiracy" to make green technology the Silicon Valley of the twenty-first century. How is this new frontier being shaped? Brian Dumaine is your guide in this intriguing look into the very near future. You'll read about: * The savvy investors: Why Warren Buffett is investing heavily in wind power, and why John Doerr, the venture capitalist and early backer of Google, is saying that "green tech is bigger than the Internet and could be the biggest economic opportunity of the twenty-first century. " * The cars of the future: The competitively priced plug-in hybrids that will get 60 miles to the gallon, and the battle being waged by fifteen start-ups competing to capture the electric car market. * The fuels without fossils: New sources of energy from plants that could capture a big chunk of the $300 billion U. S. wholesale gasoline market. * The corporate mavericks: Companies such as Duke Energy and GE, who are creating the low-carbon business models of the future, as well as cleaner ways to provide our power needs.
What's more important to a story: a gripping plot or compelling characters? Literary-minded novelists argue in favor of character-based novels while commercial novelists argue in favor of plot-based stories, but the truth of the matter is this: The best fiction is rich in both. EnterPlot Versus Character. This hands-on guide to creating a well-rounded novel embraces both of these crucial story components. You'll learn to: Create layered characters by considering personality traits, natural attributes, and backgrounds Develop your character's emotional journey and tie it to your plot's inciting incident Construct a three-act story structure that can complement and sustain your character arc Expose character backstory in a manner that accentuates plot points Seamlessly intertwine plot and character to create a compelling page-turner filled with characters to whom readers can't help but relate And much more Filled with helpful examples and friendly instruction,Plot Versus Charactertakes the guesswork out of creating great fiction by giving you the tools you need to inject life into your characters and momentum into your plots.
When it comes to writing bestsellers, it's all about the plot. Trouble is, plot is where most writers fall down--but you don't have to be one of them. With this book, you'll learn how to create stories that build suspense, reveal character, and engage readers--one scene at a time. Celebrated writing teacher and author Martha Alderson has devised a plotting system that's as innovative as it is easy to implement. With her foolproof blueprint, you'll learn to devise a successful storyline for any genre. She shows how to: Use the power of the Universal Story Create plot lines and subplots that work together Effectively use a scene tracker for maximum impact Insert energetic markers at the right points in your story Show character transformation at the book's climax This is the ultimate guide for you to write page-turners that sell!
Daily exercises guaranteed to spark your writing! The Plot Whisperer Book of Writing Prompts gives you the inspiration and motivation you need to finish every one of your writing projects. Written by celebrated writing teacher and author Martha Alderson, this book guides you through each stage of the writing process, from constructing compelling characters to establishing an unforgettable ending. Alderson also helps you get into the habit of writing creatively every day, with brand-new imaginative prompts, such as: Create an obstacle that interferes with the protagonist's goal and describe how that scene unfolds moment-by-moment. Provide sensory details of the story world and what your main character is doing at this very moment. Scan earlier scenes for examples of the protagonist's chief character flaw and develop it. He or she will need to overcome this flaw in order to achieve his or her ultimate goal. Show an issue or situation in the main character's life that needs attention and have him or her take the first step forward toward a course of action. Filled with daily affirmations, plot advice, and writing exercises, The Plot Whisperer Book of Writing Prompts will set your projects in the right direction--and on their way to the bestseller list!
Plotinus, Self and the World addresses the question of the individual subject in its relationship with the world, the 'all'. It traces the self through its experience of memory and forgetfulness, looks at whether the idea of the subconscious exists in Plotinus, and notes the probable impact of Plotinus' thought on the development of the autobiography, in the form of Augustine's Confessions. Augustine historicises the Plotinian individual self. The book reinterprets the idea of to oikeion in Plotinus and places great emphasis on the importance of the idea of 'having', and the ability to possess is itself linked to being: thus we are close to the idea of personal authenticity. Lastly the book examines Plotinus' view of images and art, and notes his respect for the beauty of the human face. His positive view of the physical world is stressed.
Double suicide or murder? Plots within plots, within plots!
In this book, Patricia Highsmith analyzes the key elements of suspense fiction, drawing upon her own experience in four decades as a working writer. She talks about, among other topics; how to develop a complete story from an idea; what makes a plot gripping; the use (and abuse) of coincidence; characterization and the "likeable criminal"; going from first draft to final draft; and writing the suspense short story.
Celebrity television chefs like Jamie Oliver and culinary stars like Hugh Fearnely-Wittingstall have made Americans newly aware of the great potential in British cooking. But the new British food revolution is not limited to fine restaurants and television. Within Britain, pub and country inn chefs, newspaper and magazine food writers, and everyday home cooks are taking a renewed interest in their own traditional cuisine, at long last approaching it with more pride than with prejudice. In The Ploughman's Lunch and the Miser's Feast, the American cookbook author, travel writer and professional photographer Brian Yarvin brings these newly rediscovered pleasures to the attention of home cooks on this side of the Atlantic. In 100 recipes, 65 color photos, and dozens of lively sidebars, Yarvin reveals what he has discovered in his numerous walking and driving trips across the length and breadth of Great Britain. His recipes emphasize traditional and down-home dishes as perfected and updated by the best cooks in Britain. They include lots of pub fare, like Fish and Chips, Shepherd's Pie, Ploughman's Lunch, and a host of savory cakes and pasties. There are festive and substantial main courses like Howtowdie, Poached Salmon with White Sauce, and, of course, a splendidly done Beef Wellington. The hard-working Brits love big breakfasts, and there is a chapter devoted to those, while another chapter celebrates the sandwiches, salads, and snacks that are served at tea time. Curry shops have been ubiquitous for so long that Indian food by now is properly British, and Yarvin devotes another chapter to dishes such as Shrimp Biryani and Chicken Korma. A big chapter, too, shows us how to make the best-loved British sweets, from the humbly named Plum Pudding and Mincemeat Cake to the amusingly monikered Fast Rascals, Kentish Huffkins, and Welsh Dripping Cake.
In this cozy mystery, a young woman is framed by her boss for embezzlement and flees to her aunt's pie shop--but when her ex-boss turns up dead on their doorstep she must start her own investigation to find the killer--before he finds her.When Maggie Grady went back to North Carolina after being accused of stealing from her workplace, she never expected her ex-boss Louis to walk through the door of her aunt's pie shop and tell her that he knew the truth about her situation--that someone framed her and he'd helped. But before Louis can set things straight in a press conference, he turns up dead on the doorstep of Pie in the Sky. Not only is Maggie's secret about why she left the big city out, but now she and her aunt are suspects in Louis's murder. With the help of Ryan, a hunky journalist, Maggie tries to figure out who set her up and killed Louis. But just as she and Ryan get closer to the truth, the killer steps up his game...
This is the fifth and final volume in David Roy's celebrated translation of one of the most famous and important novels in Chinese literature. The Plum in the Golden Vase or, Chin P'ing Mei is an anonymous sixteenth-century work that focuses on the domestic life of Hsi-men Ch'ing, a corrupt, upwardly mobile merchant in a provincial town, who maintains a harem of six wives and concubines. The novel, known primarily for its erotic realism, is also a landmark in the development of the narrative art form--not only from a specifically Chinese perspective but in a world-historical context.Written during the second half of the sixteenth century and first published in 1618, The Plum in the Golden Vase is noted for its surprisingly modern technique. With the possible exception of The Tale of Genji (ca. 1010) and Don Quixote (1605, 1615), there is no earlier work of prose fiction of equal sophistication in world literature. Although its importance in the history of Chinese narrative has long been recognized, the technical virtuosity of the author, which is more reminiscent of the Dickens of Bleak House, the Joyce of Ulysses, or the Nabokov of Lolita than anything in earlier Chinese fiction, has not yet received adequate recognition. This is partly because all of the existing European translations are either abridged or based on an inferior recension of the text. This complete and annotated translation aims to faithfully represent and elucidate all the rhetorical features of the original in its most authentic form and thereby enable the Western reader to appreciate this Chinese masterpiece at its true worth.
This is the fourth and penultimate volume in David Roy's celebrated translation of one of the most famous and important novels in Chinese literature. The Plum in the Golden Vase or, Chin P'ing Mei is an anonymous sixteenth-century work that focuses on the domestic life of Hsi-men Ch'ing, a corrupt, upwardly mobile merchant in a provincial town, who maintains a harem of six wives and concubines. The novel, known primarily for its erotic realism, is also a landmark in the development of the narrative art form--not only from a specifically Chinese perspective but in a world-historical context.Written during the second half of the sixteenth century and first published in 1618, The Plum in the Golden Vase is noted for its surprisingly modern technique. With the possible exception of The Tale of Genji (ca. 1010) and Don Quixote (1605, 1615), there is no earlier work of prose fiction of equal sophistication in world literature. Although its importance in the history of Chinese narrative has long been recognized, the technical virtuosity of the author, which is more reminiscent of the Dickens of Bleak House, the Joyce of Ulysses, or the Nabokov of Lolita than anything in earlier Chinese fiction, has not yet received adequate recognition. This is partly because all of the existing European translations are either abridged or based on an inferior recension of the text. This complete and annotated translation aims to faithfully represent and elucidate all the rhetorical features of the original in its most authentic form and thereby enable the Western reader to appreciate this Chinese masterpiece at its true worth.
In this third volume of a planned five-volume series, David Roy provides a complete and annotated translation of the famous Chin P'ing Mei, an anonymous sixteenth-century Chinese novel that focuses on the domestic life of His-men Ch'ing, a corrupt, upwardly mobile merchant who maintains a harem of six wives and concubines. This work, known primarily for its erotic realism, is also a landmark in the development of narrative art--not only from a specifically Chinese perspective but also in a world-historical context. Written during the second half of the sixteenth century and first published in 1618, The Plum in the Golden Vase is noted for its surprisingly modern technique. With the possible exception of The Tale of Genji (ca. 1010) and Don Quixote (1605, 1615), there is no earlier work of prose fiction of equal sophistication in world literature. Although its importance in the history of Chinese narrative has long been recognized, the technical virtuosity of the author, which is more reminiscent of the Dickens of Bleak House, the Joyce of Ulysses, or the Nabokov of Lolita than anything in earlier Chinese fiction, has not yet received adequate recognition. This is partly because all of the existing European translations are either abridged or based on an inferior recension of the text. This translation and its annotation aim to faithfully represent and elucidate all the rhetorical features of the original in its most authentic form and thereby enable the Western reader to appreciate this Chinese masterpiece at its true worth. Replete with convincing portrayals of the darker side of human nature, it should appeal to anyone interested in a compelling story, compellingly told.
From #1 blockbuster bestselling author Janet Evanovich comes a Stephanie Plum novel that takes adventure, action, suspense and maybe even true love to new heights. WATCH YOUR BACK... LOOK BOTH WAYS... BECAUSE LOVE IS IN THE AIR... AND THAT MEANS BIG TROUBLE! Mysterious men have a way of showing up in Stephanie Plum's apartment. When the shadowy Diesel appears, he has a task for Stephanie-and he's not taking no for an answer. Annie Hart is a "relationship expert" who is wanted for armed robbery and assault with a deadly weapon. Stephanie needs to find her, fast. Diesel knows where she is. So they make a deal: He'll help her get Annie if Stephanie plays matchmaker to several of Annie's most difficult clients. But someone wants to find Annie even more than Diesel and Stephanie. Someone with a nasty temper. And someone with "unmentionable" skills. Does Diesel know more than he's saying about Annie Hart? Does Diesel have secrets he's keeping from Stephanie and the two men in her life-Ranger and Morelli? With Stephanie Plum in over her head, things are sure to get a little dicey and a little explosive, Jersey style!
LOOKING TO GET LUCKY? Stephanie Plum is back between-the-numbers and she's looking to get lucky, in an Atlantic City hotel room, in a Winnebago, and with a brown-eyed stud who has stolen her heart. Stephanie has a way of attracting danger, lunatics, oddballs, bad luck... and mystery men. And no one is more mysterious than the unmentionable Diesel. He's back and hot on the trail of a little man in green pants who's lost a giant bag of money. Problem is, the money isn't exactly lost. Stephanie's Grandma Mazur has found it, and like any good Jersey senior citizen, she's hightailed it in a Winnebago to Atlantic City and hit the slots. With Lula and Connie in tow, Stephanie attempts to bring Grandma home, but the luck of the Irish is rubbing off on everyone: Lula's found a job modeling plus-size lingerie. Connie's found a guy. Diesel's found Stephanie. And Stephanie has found herself in over her head with a caper involving thrice-stolen money, a racehorse, a car chase, and a bad case of hives. Plum Lucky is an all-you-can-eat buffet of thrills, chills, shrimp cocktail, plus-size underwear, and scorching hot men. It's a between-the-numbers treat no Evanovich fan will want to miss!
The First Full Length Stephanie Plum Between-the-Numbers Novel from #1 Bestselling Author Janet Evanovich. Turn on all the lights and check under your bed. Things are about to get spooky in Trenton, New Jersey. According to legend, the Jersey Devil prowls the Pine Barrens and soars above the treetops in the dark of night. As eerie as this might seem, there are things in the Barrens that are even more frightening and dangerous. And there are monkeys. Lots of monkeys. Wulf Grimoire is a world wanderer and an opportunist who can kill without remorse and disappear like smoke. He's chosen Martin Munch, boy genius, as his new business partner, and he's chosen the Barrens as his new playground. Munch received his doctorate degree in quantum physics when he was twenty-two. He's now twenty-four, and while his brain is large, his body hasn't made it out of the boys' department at Macy's. Anyone who says good things come in small packages hasn't met Munch. Wulf Grimoire is looking for world domination. Martin Munch would be happy if he could just get a woman naked and tied to a tree. Bounty hunter Stephanie Plum has Munch on her most-wanted list for failure to appear in court. Plum is the all-American girl stuck in an uncomfortable job, succeeding on luck and tenacity. Usually she gets her man. This time she gets a monkey. She also gets a big guy named Diesel. Diesel pops in and out of Plum's life like birthday cake; delicious to look at and taste, not especially healthy as a steady diet, gone by the end of the week if not sooner. He's an uber bounty hunter with special skills when it comes to tracking men and pleasing women. He's after Grimoire, and now he's also after Munch. And if truth were told, he wouldn't mind setting Stephanie Plum in his crosshairs. Diesel and Plum hunt down Munch and Grimoire, following them into the Barrens, surviving cranberry bogs, the Jersey Devil, a hair-raising experience, sand in their underwear, and, of course ... monkeys.
Three old ladies are the central characters in this story which deals with a special day in their lives. It was the loving understanding of the matron and a nurse in the home for aged women that converted a potential nightmare into a gala occasion.
Barbara Jefferson, a young American teaching in Tokyo in the 1960s, is set on a life-changing quest when her Japanese surrogate mother, Michi, dies, leaving her a tansu of homemade plum wines wrapped in rice paper. Within the papers Barbara discovers writings in Japanese calligraphy that comprise a startling personal narrative. With the help of her translator, Seiji Okada, Barbara begins to unravel the mysteries of Michi's life, a story that begins in the early twentieth century and continues through World War II and its aftermath. As Barbara and Seiji translate the plum wine papers they form an intimate bond, with Michi a ghostly third in what becomes an increasingly uneasy triangle. Barbara is deeply affected by the revelation that Michi and Seiji are hibakusha, survivors of the atomic bombing in Hiroshima, and even harder for her to understand are the devastating psychological effects wrought by war. Plum Wine examines human relationships, cultural differences, and the irreparable consequences of war in a story that is both original and timeless.
Whether you're just starting out in the plumbing trade or are a seasoned veteran looking for career enhancement, successful completion of the plumber's licensing exam is an important step in your career. Comprehensive and in-depth, Plumber's Licensing Exam provides: - Review of the technical expertise you'll need, such as key terms, plumbing codes, general regulations on bathrooms, kitchens, and more, water heater installation, venting, traps, sanitary drainage, and more - Thorough familiarization with the plumbing codebook so you know where to find the answers to questions during the test - Hundreds of multiple-choice questions based on the actual exam - Guidelines for each state's requirements licensing - And much more!
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