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Risk Management and Simulation
by Aparna GuptaThe challenges of the current financial environment have revealed the need for a new generation of professionals who combine training in traditional finance disciplines with an understanding of sophisticated quantitative and analytical tools. Risk Management and Simulation shows how simulation modeling and analysis can help you solve risk managemen
Risk Management in Banks and Insurance Companies: Step by Step (Springer Texts in Business and Economics)
by Dietmar Ernst Anja Blatter Sean Bradbury Pascal BruhnThis book shows how modern risk management in banks and insurance companies can be modeled in Excel and Matlab. Readers are provided with all the necessary knowledge and skills in a systematic and structured step-by-step manner. Apart from basic Excel knowledge, no previous knowledge is required. The textbook is divided into five parts. First, the reader learns the basics of analyzing and modeling market risks. Next, the authors introduce and explain the modeling of credit risks and operational risks are quantified by calibrating loss distributions based on expert estimates. Furthermore, individual risk measures are examined in more detail. In order to calculate a risk measure for an overall portfolio to determine the risk capital, the question of the aggregation method is discussed. There are various common concepts for this, which are examined in more detail in the last part of the book.The book is aimed at students of business administration with a focus on financial services. Accompanying the book, readers receive Excel spreadsheets as digital bonus material for practice and application.
Risk Management in Credit Portfolios: Concentration Risk and Basel II
by Martin HibbelnRisk concentrations play a crucial role for the survival of individual banks and for the stability of the whole banking system. Thus, it is important from an economical and a regulatory perspective to properly measure and manage these concentrations. In this book, the impact of credit concentrations on portfolio risk is analyzed for different portfolio types and it is determined, in which cases the influence of concentration risk has to be taken into account. Furthermore, some models for the measurement of concentration risk are modified to be consistent with Basel II and their performance is compared. Beyond that, this book integrates economical and regulatory aspects of concentration risk and seeks to provide a systematic way to get familiar with the topic of concentration risk from the basics of credit risk modeling to present research in the measurement and management of credit risk concentrations.
Risk Matrix: Rating Scheme Design and Risk Aggregation (Innovation in Risk Analysis)
by Jianping Li Chunbing Bao Dengsheng WuThis book focuses on discussing the issues of rating scheme design and risk aggregation of risk matrix, which is a popular risk assessment tool in many fields. Although risk matrix is usually treated as qualitative tool, this book conducts the analysis from the quantitative perspective. The discussed content belongs to the scope of risk management, and to be more specific, it is related to quick risk assessment. This book is suitable for the researchers and practitioners related to qualitative or quick risk assessment and highly helps readers understanding how to design more convincing risk assessment tools and do more accurate risk assessment in a uncertain context.
Risk Measures and Attitudes
by Harris Schlesinger Francesca Biagini Andreas RichterRisk has been described in the past by a simple measure, such as the variance, and risk attitude is often considered simply a degree of risk aversion. However, this viewpoint is usually not sufficient. Risk Measures and Attitudes collects contributions which illustrate how modern approaches to both risk measures and risk attitudes are inevitably intertwined. The settings under which this is discussed include portfolio choice, mitigating credit risk and comparing risky alternatives. This book will be a useful study aid for students and researchers of actuarial science or risk management as well as practitioners.
Risk Measures and Insurance Solvency Benchmarks: Fixed-Probability Levels in Renewal Risk Models (Chapman and Hall/CRC Financial Mathematics Series)
by Vsevolod K. MalinovskiiRisk Measures and Insurance Solvency Benchmarks: Fixed-Probability Levels in Renewal Risk Models is written for academics and practitioners who are concerned about potential weaknesses of the Solvency II regulatory system. It is also intended for readers who are interested in pure and applied probability, have a taste for classical and asymptotic analysis, and are motivated to delve into rather intensive calculations. The formal prerequisite for this book is a good background in analysis. The desired prerequisite is some degree of probability training, but someone with knowledge of the classical real-variable theory, including asymptotic methods, will also find this book interesting. For those who find the proofs too complicated, it may be reassuring that most results in this book are formulated in rather elementary terms. This book can also be used as reading material for basic courses in risk measures, insurance mathematics, and applied probability. The material of this book was partly used by the author for his courses in several universities in Moscow, Copenhagen University, and in the University of Montreal. Features Requires only minimal mathematical prerequisites in analysis and probability Suitable for researchers and postgraduate students in related fields Could be used as a supplement to courses in risk measures, insurance mathematics and applied probability.
Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making
by Glenn KollerRisk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk
Risk Monetization: Converting Threats and Opportunities into Impact on Project Value
by Glenn R. KollerRisk Monetization: Converting Threats and Opportunities into Impact on Project Value addresses the organizational, political, cultural, and technical issues related to implementing a successful risk assessment, management, and monetization process. Suitable for readers in any organization or area of expertise, the book assumes no prior background i
Risk Parity Fundamentals
by Edward E. QianWritten by an experienced researcher and portfolio manager who coined the term "risk parity," this book provides readers with a practical understanding of the risk parity investment approach. It uses fundamental, quantitative, and historical analysis to address the merit of risk parity as well as the practical and underlying aspects of risk parity investing. Requiring no advanced degrees in quantitative fields, the book analyzes risk parity performance from historical periods and more recent market environments.
Risk Savvy
by Gerd GigerenzerAn eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how. Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Risk Savvy
by Gerd GigerenzerAn eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal livesIn the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information.In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how.Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Risk Theory (Springer Actuarial)
by Hanspeter SchmidliThis book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.
Risk Theory: Rational Decision in the Face of Chance, Uncertainty, and Risk (SpringerBriefs in Philosophy)
by Nicholas RescherApart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors—including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck—are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice.Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.
Risk and Insurance: A Graduate Text (Probability Theory and Stochastic Modelling #96)
by Søren Asmussen Mogens SteffensenThis textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability. Both non-life and life aspects are covered. The emphasis is on probability and modeling rather than statistics and practical implementation. Aimed at the graduate level, pointing in part to current research topics, it can potentially replace other textbooks on basic non-life insurance mathematics and advanced risk management methods in non-life insurance. Based on chapters selected according to the particular topics in mind, the book may serve as a source for introductory courses to insurance mathematics for non-specialists, advanced courses for actuarial students, or courses on probabilistic aspects of risk. It will also be useful for practitioners and students/researchers in related areas such as finance and statistics who wish to get an overview of the general area of mathematical modeling and analysis in insurance.
Risk and Predictive Analytics in Business with R (Chapman and Hall/CRC Series on Statistics in Business and Economics)
by David L. Olson Ozgur M. ArazSupply chain operations face many risks, including political, environmental, and economic. The past five years have seen major challenges, from pandemic, impacts of global warming, wars, and tariff impositions. In this rapidly changing world, risks appear in every aspect of operations. This book presents data mining and analytics tools with R programming as well as a brief presentation of Monte Carlo simulation that can be used to anticipate and manage these risks. RStudio software and R programming language are widely used in data mining. For Monte Carlo simulation applications we cover Crystal Ball software, one of a number of commercially available Monte Carlo simulation tools.Chapter 1 of this book deals with classification of risks. It includes a typical supply chain example published in academic literature. Chapter 2 gives a brief introduction to R programming. It is not intended to be comprehensive, but sufficient for a user to get started using this free open source and highly popular analytics tool. Chapter 3 discusses risks commonly found in finance, to include basic data mining tools applied to analysis of credit card fraud data. Like the other datasets used in the book, this data comes from the Kaggle.com site, a free site loaded with realistic datasets. The remainder of the book covers risk analytics tools. Chapter 4 presents R association rule modeling using a supply chain related dataset. Chapter 5 presents Monte Carlo simulation of some supply chain risk situations. Chapter 6 gives both time series and multiple regression prediction models as well as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA; Box-Jenkins) models in SAS and R. Chapter 7 covers classification models demonstrated with credit risk data. Chapter 8 deals with fraud detection and the common problem of modeling imbalanced datasets. Chapter 9 introduces Naïve Bayes modeling with categorical data using an employee attrition dataset.Features: Overview of predictive analytics presented in an understandable manner Presentation of useful business applications of predictive data mining Coverage of risk management in finance, insurance, and supply chain contexts Presentation of predictive models Demonstration of using these predictive models in R Screenshots enabling readers to develop their own models The purpose of the book is to present tools useful to analyze risks, especially those faced in supply chain management and finance.
Risk and Reward
by N. Richard WerthamerFor decades, casino gaming has been steadily increasing in popularity worldwide. Blackjack is among the most popular of the casino table games, one where astute choices of playing strategy can create an advantage for the player. RISK AND REWARD analyzes the game in depth, pinpointing not just its optimal strategies but also its financial performance, in terms of both expected cash flow and associated risk. The book begins by describing the strategies and their performance in a clear, straightforward style. The presentation is self-contained, non-mathematical, and accessible to readers at all levels of playing skill, from the novice to the blackjack expert. Careful attention is also given to simplified, but still nearly optimal strategies that are easier to use in a casino. Unlike other books in the literature the author then derives each aspect of the strategy mathematically, to justify its claim to optimality. The derivations mostly use algebra and calculus, although some require more advanced analysis detailed in supporting appendices. For easy comprehension, formulae are translated into tables and graphs through extensive computation. This book will appeal to everyone interested in blackjack: those with mathematical training intrigued by its application to this popular game as well as all players seeking to improve their performance.
Risk and Reward: The Science of Casino Blackjack
by N. Richard WerthamerFor decades, casino gaming has been steadily increasing in popularity worldwide. Blackjack is among the most popular of the casino table games, one where astute choices of playing strategy can create an advantage for the player. RISK AND REWARD analyzes the game in depth, pinpointing not just its optimal strategies but also its financial performance, in terms of both expected cash flow and associated risk. The book begins by describing the strategies and their performance in a clear, straightforward style. The presentation is self-contained, non-mathematical, and accessible to readers at all levels of playing skill, from the novice to the blackjack expert. Careful attention is also given to simplified, but still nearly optimal strategies that are easier to use in a casino. Unlike other books in the literature the author then derives each aspect of the strategy mathematically, to justify its claim to optimality. The derivations mostly use algebra and calculus, although some require more advanced analysis detailed in supporting appendices. For easy comprehension, formulae are translated into tables and graphs through extensive computation. This book will appeal to everyone interested in blackjack: those with mathematical training intrigued by its application to this popular game as well as all players seeking to improve their performance.
Risk and Uncertainty Reduction by Using Algebraic Inequalities
by Michael T. TodinovThis book covers the application of algebraic inequalities for reliability improvement and for uncertainty and risk reduction. It equips readers with powerful domain-independent methods for reducing risk based on algebraic inequalities and demonstrates the significant benefits derived from the application for risk and uncertainty reduction. Algebraic inequalities: • Provide a powerful reliability improvement, risk and uncertainty reduction method that transcends engineering and can be applied in various domains of human activity • Present an effective tool for dealing with deep uncertainty related to key reliability-critical parameters of systems and processes • Permit meaningful interpretations which link abstract inequalities with the real world • Offer a tool for determining tight bounds for the variation of risk-critical parameters and complying the design with these bounds to avoid failure • Allow optimising designs and processes by minimising the deviation of critical output parameters from their specified values and maximising their performance This book is primarily for engineering professionals and academic researchers in virtually all existing engineering disciplines.
Risk and the Theory of Security Risk Assessment (Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications)
by Carl S. YoungThis book provides the conceptual foundation of security risk assessment and thereby enables reasoning about risk from first principles. It presents the underlying theory that is the basis of a rigorous and universally applicable security risk assessment methodology. Furthermore, the book identifies and explores concepts with profound operational implications that have traditionally been sources of ambiguity if not confusion in security risk management. Notably, the text provides a simple quantitative model for complexity, a significant driver of risk that is typically not addressed in security-related contexts. Risk and The Theory of Security Risk Assessment is a primer of security risk assessment pedagogy, but it also provides methods and metrics to actually estimate the magnitude of security risk. Concepts are explained using numerous examples, which are at times both enlightening and entertaining. As a result, the book bridges a longstanding gap between theory and practice, and therefore will be a useful reference to students, academics and security practitioners.
Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making
by George G. SzpiroAt its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally.In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
Risk-Averse Optimization and Control: Theory and Methods (Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering)
by Darinka Dentcheva Andrzej RuszczyńskiThis book offers a comprehensive presentation of the theory and methods of risk-averse optimization and control. Problems of this type arise in finance, energy production and distribution, supply chain management, medicine, and many other areas, where not only the average performance of a stochastic system is essential, but also high-impact and low-probability events must be taken into account. The book is a self-contained presentation of the utility theory, the theory of measures of risk, including systemic and dynamic measures of risk, and their use in optimization and control models. It also covers stochastic dominance relations and their application as constraints in optimization models. Optimality conditions for problems with nondifferentiable and nonconvex functions and operators involving risk measures and stochastic dominance relations are discussed. Much attention is paid to multi-stage risk-averse optimization problems and to risk-averse Markov decision problems. Specialized algorithms for solving risk-averse optimization and control problems are presented and analyzed: stochastic subgradient methods for risk optimization, decomposition methods for dynamic problems, event cut and dual methods for stochastic dominance constraints, and policy iteration methods for control problems. The target audience is researchers and graduate students in the areas of mathematics, business analytics, insurance and finance, engineering, and computer science. The theoretical considerations are illustrated with examples, which make the book useful material for advanced courses in the area.
Risk-Return Relationship and Portfolio Management (India Studies in Business and Economics)
by Raj S. DhankarThis book covers all aspects of modern finance relating to portfolio theory and risk–return relationship, offering a comprehensive guide to the importance, measurement and application of the risk–return hypothesis in portfolio management. It is divided into five parts: Part I discusses the valuation of capital assets and presents various techniques and models used in this context. Part II then addresses market efficiency and capital market models, particularly focusing on measuring market efficiency, which is a crucial factor in making correct investment decisions. It also analyzes the major capital market models like CAPM and APT to determine to what extent they are suitable for use in developing economies. Part III highlights the significance of risk–return analysis as a prerequisite for investment decisions, while Part IV examines the selection and performance appraisals of portfolios against the backdrop of the risk–return relationship. It also examines new tools such as the value-at-risk application for mutual funds and the applications of the price-to-earnings ratio in portfolio performance measurement. Lastly, Part V explores contemporary issues in finance, including the relevance of Islamic finance in the increasingly volatile global financial system.
Risk: All That Matters
by Clive Steeper Sue StockdaleWe are all risk takers. In life and in business, human attitudes towards risk are terrifyingly irrational. We hugely over-estimate short-term risks (standing near a cliff edge, or selling to someone who may not be credit worthy) but we under-estimate long-term risks (smoking, or acquiring a large company). This book seeks to understand risk from the human perspective. Why do we decide the things that we do, and how can we do it differently or better? This book should be required reading not just for students of business or economics, but for anyone faced with making important decisions.
Risk: All That Matters (All That Matters)
by Clive Steeper Sue StockdaleWe are all risk takers.In life and in business, human attitudes towards risk are terrifyingly irrational. We hugely over-estimate short-term risks (standing near a cliff edge, or selling to someone who may not be credit worthy) but we under-estimate long-term risks (smoking, or acquiring a large company).This book seeks to understand risk from the human perspective. Why do we decide the things that we do, and how can we do it differently or better? This book should be required reading not just for students of business or economics, but for anyone faced with making important decisions.
Risks, Resilience and Interdependency: Developing Countries in the Age of Uncertainties
by Jing Zhang Guang Yang Lanyu Liu Xinghan XiongThis open access book is a collection of selected papers from the 3rd Tsinghua Area Studies forum by the Institute for International and Area Studies (IIAS) at Tsinghua University in Beijing, theming at &“Developing Countries in the Age of Uncertainties: Risk, Resilience and Interdependency&”. From the perspective of area studies, the risks faced by more fragile developing countries in an environment of uncertainty and the resilience and interdependency exhibited in the face of risks were discussed. The discussion was a brave attempt by the IIAS to inject more certainty into the uncertain world. A total of 131 papers by scholars from various countries were presented in this forum. After the forum, the editorial group of the IIAS Forum Proceedings selected ten outstanding papers and compiled them under the title &“Risk, Resilience and Interdependency: Developing Countries in the Age of Uncertainty.&”