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Demand Flexibility in Supply Chain Planning
by Joseph GeunesThis work encapsulates the essential developments in this field into a single resource, as well as to set an agenda for further development in the field. This brief focuses on the demand flexibility in supply chains with fragmented results distributed throughout the literature. These results have strong implications for managing real-world complex operations planning problems. This book exploits dimensions of demand flexibility in supply chains and characterizes the best fit between demand properties and operations capabilities and constraints. The origins and seminal works are traced in integrated demand and operations planning and an in-depth documentation is provided for the current state of the art. Systems with inherent costs and constraints that must respond to some set of demands at a minimum cost are examined. Crucial unanswered questions are explored and the high-value research directions are highlighted for both practice and for the development of new and interesting optimization models and algorithms.
Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals
by Stephan Kolassa Bahman Rostami-Tabar Enno SiemsenThis book surveys what executives who make decisions based on forecasts and professionals responsible for forecasts should know about forecasting. It discusses how individuals and firms should think about forecasting and guidelines for good practices. It introduces readers to the subject of time series, presents basic and advanced forecasting models, from exponential smoothing across ARIMA to modern Machine Learning methods, and examines human judgment's role in interpreting numbers and identifying forecasting errors and how it should be integrated into organizations. This is a great book to start learning about forecasting if you are new to the area or have some preliminary exposure to forecasting. Whether you are a practitioner, either in a role managing a forecasting team or at operationally involved in demand planning, a software designer, a student or an academic teaching business analytics, operational research, or operations management courses, the book can inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. No prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, operations research, or forecasting is assumed in this book. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. This may include a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or a student enrolled in an MBA program, an executive education course, or programs not specialising in analytics. Worked examples accompany the key formulae to show how they can be implemented. Key Features: While there are many books about forecasting technique, very few are published targeting managers. This book fills that gap. It provides the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing enough information to allow a busy manager to read a book and learn something that can be directly used in practice. It provides key takeaways that will help managers to make difference in their companies.
Demand Prediction in Retail: A Practical Guide to Leverage Data and Predictive Analytics (Springer Series in Supply Chain Management #14)
by Maxime C. Cohen Paul-Emile Gras Arthur Pentecoste Renyu ZhangFrom data collection to evaluation and visualization of prediction results, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the process of predicting demand for retailers. Each step is illustrated with the relevant code and implementation details to demystify how historical data can be leveraged to predict future demand. The tools and methods presented can be applied to most retail settings, both online and brick-and-mortar, such as fashion, electronics, groceries, and furniture. This book is intended to help students in business analytics and data scientists better master how to leverage data for predicting demand in retail applications. It can also be used as a guide for supply chain practitioners who are interested in predicting demand. It enables readers to understand how to leverage data to predict future demand, how to clean and pre-process the data to make it suitable for predictive analytics, what the common caveats are in terms of implementation and how to assess prediction accuracy.
Demand-Driven Associative Classification
by Wagner Meira Jr. Adriano VelosoThe ultimate goal of machines is to help humans to solve problems. Such problems range between two extremes: structured problems for which the solution is totally defined (and thus are easily programmed by humans), and random problems for which the solution is completely undefined (and thus cannot be programmed). Problems in the vast middle ground have solutions that cannot be well defined and are, thus, inherently hard to program. Machine Learning is the way to handle this vast middle ground, so that many tedious and difficult hand-coding tasks would be replaced by automatic learning methods. There are several machine learning tasks, and this work is focused on a major one, which is known as classification. Some classification problems are hard to solve, but we show that they can be decomposed into much simpler sub-problems. We also show that independently solving these sub-problems by taking into account their particular demands, often leads to improved classification performance.
Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and How to Read Them
by Dan BoukFrom the historian Dan Bouk, a lesson in reading between the lines of the U.S. census to uncover the stories behind the data.The census isn’t just a data-collection process; it’s a ritual, and a tool, of American democracy. Behind every neat grid of numbers is a collage of messy, human stories—you just have to know how to read them.In Democracy’s Data, the data historian Dan Bouk examines the 1940 U.S. census, uncovering what those numbers both condense and cleverly abstract: a universe of meaning and uncertainty, of cultural negotiation and political struggle. He introduces us to the men and women employed as census takers, bringing us with them as they go door to door, recording the lives of their neighbors. He takes us into the makeshift halls of the Census Bureau, where hundreds of civil servants, not to mention machines, labored with pencil and paper to divide and conquer the nation’s data. And he uses these little points to paint bigger pictures, such as of the ruling hand of white supremacy, the place of queer people in straight systems, and the struggle of ordinary people to be seen by the state as they see themselves.The 1940 census is a crucial entry in American history, a controversial dataset that enabled the creation of New Deal era social programs, but that also, with the advent of World War Two, would be weaponized against many of the citizens whom it was supposed to serve. In our age of quantification, Democracy’s Data not only teaches us how to read between the lines but gives us a new perspective on the relationship between representation, identity, and governance today.
Demographic Analysis (Routledge Revivals)
by Bernard BenjaminFirst published in 1968, Demographic Analysis was written to provide a comprehensive account of demographic methods for those with a need to understand population movements. The book provides an introduction to some of the key tools used by demographers and the principal sources of population data. Beginning with an overview of the scope, content and use of the population census, it then examines methods for measuring births, deaths, and migration before setting out the methodology for determining the contributions of these elements to population change and estimating past or future changes. The book also explores sickness as a population characteristic and a way of better understanding mortality variations.
Demographic Analysis: Projections on Natality, Fertility and Replacement
by Roland PressatPopulation control requires that the birth rate equal to the death rate. If it is too low population will decline; if it is too high, population will increase. If either condition persists long enough the population will diminish towards zero or increase towards infinity. Fortunately, the birth trajectory does not have to be set once and for all, but can be adjusted within limits. Since birth and death rates determine whether we are heading for population extinction or explosion, they are well designated "vital statistics." Their understanding and use are a central theme of demographic analysis."Demographic Analysis" presents those techniques that are often called for in the study of demographic problems. Such techniques permit researchers to fill the gap between the large amounts of data made available by censuses and the theoretical and practical questions that need to be answered; the techniques of this book effectively bring the data into confrontation with the problems. In his treatment of population projection, Pressat applies methods developed in earlier sections for mortality arid fertility. The emphasis is on population projection and accords with its usefulness in demographic analysis. The meaning of a demographic rate or trend is brought out by seeing to what condition it would lead if continued. No assumption is made that the concrete future will follow either path.The substance of the book is devoted to the main themes of mortality and fertility. Underlying these as well as nearly every other kind of data with which the demographer deals is the problem of location in time - the relation of vital events to the calendar, and also to the age of the persons undergoing them. Pressat's detailed attention to this problem forms a solid basis for how current methodology accounts of demographic changes.
Demographic Angst: Cultural Narratives and American Films of the 1950s
by Alan NadelProlific literature, both popular and scholarly, depicts America in the period of the High Cold War as being obsessed with normality, implicitly figuring the postwar period as a return to the way of life that had been put on hold, first by the Great Depression and then by Pearl Harbor. Demographic Angst argues that mandated normativity—as a political agenda and a social ethic—precluded explicit expression of the anxiety produced by America’s radically reconfigured postwar population. Alan Nadel explores influential non-fiction books, magazine articles, and public documents in conjunction with films such as Singin’ in the Rain, On the Waterfront, Sunset Boulevard, and Sayonara, to examine how these films worked through fresh anxieties that emerged during the 1950s.
Demographic Assessment Techniques in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies: SUMMARY OF A WORKSHOP
by Holly ReedA summary of the Demographic Assessment Techniques in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
Demographic Change and Economic Growth: Simulations on Growth Models
by Lars WeberIn this book the author investigates the impact of demographic change on economic growth. As a result of the current financial crisis, a new view on economics has been demanded by various scientists. The author provides such a new view on economic growth, using a methodology of system dynamics. By applying this method, the author focuses on characteristics of complex systems and analyzes aging and shrinking processes, and not only positive growth. Delays and feedback processes are also considered. This leads to deeper and revealing insights into economic behavior. In doing so, a new semi-endogenous growth model is developed by introducing a specific and detailed population sector (demographic growth model). The book shows and analyzes the behavior of such a model and tests several policy scenarios in a transfer chapter to apply the new theoretical approach on real world problems. The major results are summarized in 15 principles of demographic growth.
Demographic Change and Housing Wealth:
by Kees Dol John Doling Nick Horsewood Hanna Szemzo József Hegedüs Nóra Teller Richard Ronald Marja Elsinga Janneke ToussaintAcross the EU, populations are shrinking and ageing. An increasing burden is being placed on a smaller working population to generate the taxes required for pensions and care costs. Welfare states are weakening in many countries and across Europe, households are being increasingly expected to plan for their retirement and future care needs within this risky environment. At the same time, the proportion of people buying their own home in most countries has risen, so that some two-thirds of European households now own their homes. Housing equity now considerably exceeds total European GDP. This book discusses questions like: to what extent might home ownership provide a potential cure for some of the consequences of ageing populations by realizing housing equity in order to meet the consumption needs of older people? What does this mean for patterns of inheritance and longer-term inequalities across Europe? And to what extent are governments banking on their citizens utilising their housing wealth now and in the future?
Demographic Change in Australia's Rural Landscapes
by Rosemary Black Gary W. Luck Digby RaceThroughout history, humans have lived primarily in rural landscapes. In 2008, for the first time, the global population became predominantly urban. While much research has focussed on the impacts of increasing urbanisation, we have very little knowledge of the implications of these changes for rural landscapes. Global trends suggest populations in rural landscapes are, relatively speaking, in decline. Yet this broad trend is too simplistic and can be very misleading for researchers, land managers and policy makers. This generalisation often masks a much more complex and dynamic process of demographic change, with some rural areas increasing in popularity and experiencing new environmental pressures. The patterns of change can be broadly characterised in two ways: population decline and dissolving rural communities; and amenity-led in-migration (or counter-urbanisation) - a trend identified in developed regions such as North America and Australia. Both of these patterns have substantial implications for the management and sustainability of rural landscapes and communities. This book examines broad and local-scale patterns of demographic change in rural landscapes, identifying some of the drivers of these changes using local case studies, and outlining the implications of changes for society and the environment. The book adopts an interdisciplinary approach by explicitly linking demographic change with environmental, land-use, social and economic factors. The book will provide a useful resource for researchers and graduate students interested in urban development, sustainability science, landscape studies and demographic change, as well as environmental management, human and physical geography and rural sociology.
Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications
by Roberta Pace Roberto Ham-ChandeThis book examines potential economic opportunities that countries can experience when fertility rates fall and the average life expectancy of the working age population increases. It presents detailed demographic and economic analysis of middle-income countries throughout the world in order to show how these countries can take advantage of this demographic bonus. The book first traces the common link between policies that contribute to fertility transition as well as create the right kind of environment for reaping the benefit of demographic dividend. Next, it explores different countries and regions who are at different levels of development. It assesses the long term impact of gender equality on economic growth and development in Latin America; describes the life-cycle saving patterns of Mexican households; and examines demographic determinants of economic growth in BRICS. The book also offers demographic and economic analysis of the Mediterranean area, Sub-Saharan Africa, and New Zealand. The comparison between the different territorial contexts allow for the identification of three typologies of demographic dividend: the first dividend, when the working population grows faster than total population, the second dividend, as active generations get older and invest their savings in the production system of their country, and the third dividend, based on the coexistence of two populations age structure strongly contrasting. Overall, this book argues for the need to capitalize on the opportunities that come from the demographic dividend by investing heavily in education programs, training programs for the population working age, health programs, the creation of health insurance systems as well as programs to reduce or increase fertility levels.
Demographic Dynamics and Development
by Yves CharbitOne of the major challenges facing the world today is the interaction between demographic change and development. Demographic Dynamics and Development reviews the dominant demographic theory, demographic transition, and then presents a thorough investigation covering aging, fertility, contraception, nuptiality, mortality and migration, which are all aspects that drive these changes. Each chapter combines the latest empirical data with theoretical reflections on the implications for development.This book thus offers an overview of worldwide demographic data, studied with a view towards development. In doing so, it provides researchers and specialists with clear information through in-depth case studies, focusing on a country, a region or a particularly important scientific sub-theme.
Demographic Engineering: Population Strategies In Ethnic Conflict (International Population Studies)
by Paul MorlandDemography has always mattered in conflict, but with conflict increasingly of an inter-ethnic nature, with sharper demographic differences between ethnic groups and with the spread of democracy, numbers count in conflict now more than ever. This book argues for and develops a framework for demographic engineering which provides a fresh perspective for looking at political events in countries where ethnicity matters. It asks how policies have been framed and implemented to change the demography of ethnic groups on the ground in their own interests. It also examines how successful these policies have been, focusing on the cases of Sri Lanka, Israel/Palestine, Northern Ireland and the USA. Often these policies are hidden but author Paul Morland teases them out with skill both from the statistics and documentary records and through conversations with participants. Offering a new way of thinking about demographic engineering (’hard demography’ versus ’soft demography’) and how ethnic groups in conflict deploy demographic strategies, this book will have a broad appeal to demographers, geographers and political scientists.
Demographic Gaps in American Political Behavior
by Patrick FisherDemographic Gaps in American Political Behavior examines the political behavior of various groups in the United States in an effort to demonstrate how demographic backgrounds and socialization affect political behavior. Media coverage has disproportionately focused on the red state versus blue state divide, leaving the impression that American political behavior is determined solely by place of residence. This, however, ignores the numerous other political divides that exist in the United States today. In order to better conceptualize the landscape of American political behavior, Patrick Fisher analyzes the political gaps in six different demographics--income, religion, gender, race, age, and geography--and examines the effect these political gaps have on public opinion, policy, and party positioning. Written in an accessible fashion, Demographic Gaps in American Political Behavior uses contemporary examples and data from the 2008 and 2012 elections to help readers understand how and why demographic background has the potential to greatly influence political opinions and behavior.
Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies (Routledge Library Editions: Demography #7)
by R. W. HiornsOriginally published in 1980, this volume reviews the demographic patterns of fertility, marriage and mortality with reference to developed societies in the 19th and 20th centuries in Western Europe and North America. New (at the time of publication) data and methodology are considered and discussed, while maintaining the historical perspective.
Demographic Shifts and Digital Innovation in the Public Sector (SpringerBriefs in Entrepreneurship and Innovation)
by Mehmet Akif Demircioglu Manuel Di Loreto Kohei SuzukiThis book examines the impact of demographic decline on digital innovation in the public sector. Utilizing data from Italian municipalities, it provides quantitative and qualitative analyses to reveal the negative impact of demographic decline on digital innovation, which presents a unique challenge for policymakers seeking to foster technological advances in a shrinking, ageing society. This book also investigates the roles of macro-level social, economic, demographic, and administrative factors in the innovation of public organizations. By highlighting these broader demographic dynamics, this book challenges existing theories of public sector innovation, urging greater attention to slow-moving external factors as critical drivers of long-term innovation strategies.
Demographic Transition and Social Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean
by Daniel CotlearLatin America and the Caribbean will soon face the challenges of an aging population. This process, which took over a century in the rich world, will occur in two or three decades in the developing world; seven of the 25 countries that will age more rapidly are in LAC. Population aging will pose challenges and offer opportunities. This book explores three sets of issues. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. This covers questions of work and retirement, income and wealth, and living arrangements and intergenerational transfers. It also explores the relation between the life cycle and poverty. Second is the question of the health transition. How does the demographic transition impact the health status of the population and the demand for health care? And how advanced is the health transition in LAC? Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process. This book provides an introduction to the concepts and techniques at the intersection of demography and economics. It summarizes the policy debate about potential reforms needed to make population aging an opportunity for development.
Demographic Transition, Labour Markets and Regional Resilience
by Cristina Martinez Tamara Weyman Jouke Van DijkThis book discusses the question of how a regional economy can develop under the influence of an ageing and declining population, and how regional development policies can help make labor markets more resilient and more inclusive. As the greatest impacts of demographic change and policy and fiscal challenges can be observed at the local level, examples from European, North American and Asian regions are combined to present a comprehensive, global range of strategic solutions from different policy contexts. The book shows how institutions, organizations and communities can enhance their pathways for sustainable development through the intelligent management of their demographic transition, and offers a synthesis of valuable lessons and strategies.
Demographic and Family Transition in Southeast Asia
by Wei-Jun Jean YeungThis open access book presents the trends and patterns of demographic and family changes from all eleven countries in the region for the past 50 years. The rich data are coupled with historical, cultural and policy background to facilitate an understanding of the changes that families in Southeast Asia have been going through. The book is structured into two parts. Part A includes three segments preceded by a briefing on Southeast Asia. The first segment focuses on marital and partnership status in the region, particularly marriage rates, age at marriage, incidence of singlehood, cohabitation, and divorce. The second segment focuses on fertility indicators such as fertility rates (total, age-specific, adolescent), age at childbearing, and childlessness. The third presents information on household structures in the region by examining household sizes, and incidence of one-person households, single-parent families, as well as extended and composite households. Part B presents indicators of children and youth’s well-being.
Demographics Unravelled: How Demographics Affect and Influence Every Aspect of Economics, Finance and Policy
by Amlan RoyDiscover what demographics can tell us about the economy, markets, and the future In Demographics Unravelled, renowned Macro-Demographics expert Amlan Roy delivers an insightful and timely exploration of the impact that “people characteristics” have on national economies. Considering factors like gender, race, migrant status, family background, and education, the author delves deeply into a subject that drives market behavior and economic variables, including growth, debt, inflation, employment, and productivity. These have national and international policy implications. In this one-of-a-kind book, you’ll discover: Why the study of demographics is the hidden key to understanding economic growth, asset prices, and capital flows How to use detailed demographics to forecast future scenarios in economics, socioeconomics, geopolitics, and the environment The short-, medium-, and long-term effects of consumer and worker behavior How understanding demographics is key to understanding health, pensions, migration, sustainability and social policies. It is intimately linked to the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN—Gender, Climate, Poverty and Inequality Perfect for institutional investors, insurance professionals, economists, and business leaders, Demographics Unravelled will also earn a place in the libraries of academics and students studying a variety of economic disciplines and seeking a one-stop and in-depth discussion of demographics-driven macroeconomic effects.
Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific
by Karen Eggleston, Joon-Shik Park, and Gi-Wook ShinDemographic transition, along with the economic and geopolitical re-emergence of Asia, are two of the largest forces shaping the twenty-first century, but little is known about the implications for innovation. The countries of East Asia have some of the oldest age structures on the planet: between now and 2050, the population that is age 65 and older will increase to more than one in four Chinese, and to more than one in three Japanese and Koreans. Other economies with younger populations, like India, face the challenge of fully harnessing the "demographic dividend" from large cohorts in the working ages. This book delves into how such demographic changes shape the supply of innovation and the demand for specific kinds of innovation in the Asia-Pacific. Social scientists from Asia and the United States offer multidisciplinary perspectives from economics, demography, political science, sociology, and public policy; topics range from the macroeconomic effects of population age structure, to the microeconomics of technology and the labor force, to the broader implications for human well-being. Contributors analyze how demography shapes productivity and the labor supply of older workers, as well as explore the aging population as consumers of technologies and drivers of innovations to meet their own needs, as well as the political economy of spatial development, agglomeration economies, urban-rural contrasts, and differential geographies of aging.
Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education
by Nathan D. GraweThe decisions we make in the next five years are critical in determining whether colleges thrive or flounder.2017 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Award for Outstanding AACRAO SEM Research PresentationHigher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest—traditional higher education strongholds—expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years.In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years.Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.
Demography and Degeneration
by Richard A. SolowayRichard Soloway offers a compelling and authoritative study of the relationship of the eugenics movement to the dramatic decline in the birthrate and family size in twentieth-century Britain. Working in a tradition of hereditarian determinism which held fast to the premise that "like tends to beget like," eugenicists developed and promoted a theory of biosocial engineering through selective reproduction. Soloway shows that the appeal of eugenics to the middle and upper classes of British society was closely linked to recurring concerns about the relentless drop in fertility and the rapid spread of birth control practices from the 1870s to World War II.Demography and Degeneration considers how differing scientific and pseudoscientific theories of biological inheritance became popularized and enmeshed in the prolonged, often contentious national debate about "race suicide" and "the dwindling family." Demographic statistics demonstrated that birthrates were declining among the better-educated, most successful classes while they remained high for the poorest, least-educated portion of the population. For many people steeped in the ideas of social Darwinism, eugenicist theories made this decline all the more alarming: they feared that falling birthrates among the "better" classes signfied a racial decline and degeneration that might prevent Britain from successfully negotiating the myriad competive challenges facing the nation in the twentieth century.Although the organized eugenics movement remained small and elitist throughout most of its history, this study demonstrates how pervasive eugenic assumptions were in the middle and upper reaches of British society, at least until World War II. It also traces the important role of eugenics in the emergence of the modern family planning movement and the formulation of population policies in the interwar years.