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Decision Options: The Art and Science of Making Decisions (Chapman & Hall/CRC Finance Series)
by Gill EapenThrough theory and case studies, this book details how uncertainty and flexibility can be evaluated to assist in making better investment decisions in companies. It delivers an excellent balance of theory and practice in the area of investment decision making, demonstrates how financial and real options are related, and describes the theoretical underpinnings of both. The author presents case studies from diverse industries, including life sciences, pharmaceuticals, commodities, energy, technology, manufacturing, and financial services. He also looks at how organizations can become successful using a holistic framework that integrates uncertainty and flexibility.
Decision Policies for Production Networks
by Dieter Armbruster Karl G. KempfThe financial results of any manufacturing company can be dramatically impacted by the repetitive decisions required to control a complex production network be it a network of machines in a factory; a network of factories in a company; or a network of companies in a supply chain. Decision Policies for Production Networks presents recent convergent research on developing policies for operating production networks including details of practical control and decision techniques which can be applied to improve the effectiveness and economic efficiency of production networks worldwide. Researchers and practitioners come together to explore a wide variety of approaches to a range of topics including: WIP and equipment management policies, Material release policies, Machine, factory, and supply chain network policies for delivery in the face of supply and demand variability, and Conflicts between complex production network models and their controlling policies. Case studies and relevant mathematical techniques are included to support and explain techniques such as heuristics, global and hierarchical optimization, control theory and filtering approaches related to complex systems or traffic flows. Decision Policies for Production Networks acts as handbook for researchers and practitioners alike, providing findings and information which can be applied to develop methods and advance further research across production networks.
Decision Science for Future Earth: Theory and Practice
by Tetsukazu YaharaThis open access book provides a theoretical framework and case studies on decision science for regional sustainability by integrating the natural and social sciences. The cases discussed include solution-oriented transdisciplinary studies on the environment, disasters, health, governance and human cooperation. Based on these case studies and comprehensive reviews of relevant works, including lessons learned from past failures for predictable surprises and successes in adaptive co-management, the book provides the reader with new perspectives on how we can co-design collaborative projects with various conflicts of interest and how we can transform our society for a sustainable future. The book makes a valuable contribution to the global research initiative Future Earth, promoting transdisciplinary studies to bridge the gap between science and society in knowledge generation processes and supporting efforts to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Compared to other publications on transdisciplinary studies, this book is unique in that evolutionary biology is used as an integrator for various areas related to human decision-making, and approaches social changes as processes of adaptive learning and evolution. Given its scope, the book is highly recommended to all readers seeking an integrated overview of human decision-making in the context of social transformation.
Decision Sciences: Theory and Practice
by Raghu Nandan Sengupta, Aparna Gupta and Joydeep DuttaThis handbook is an endeavour to cover many current, relevant, and essential topics related to decision sciences in a scientific manner. Using this handbook, graduate students, researchers, as well as practitioners from engineering, statistics, sociology, economics, etc. will find a new and refreshing paradigm shift as to how these topics can be put to use beneficially. Starting from the basics to advanced concepts, authors hope to make the readers well aware of the different theoretical and practical ideas, which are the focus of study in decision sciences nowadays. It includes an excellent bibliography/reference/journal list, information about a variety of datasets, illustrated pseudo-codes, and discussion of future trends in research. Covering topics ranging from optimization, networks and games, multi-objective optimization, inventory theory, statistical methods, artificial neural networks, times series analysis, simulation modeling, decision support system, data envelopment analysis, queueing theory, etc., this reference book is an attempt to make this area more meaningful for varied readers. Noteworthy features of this handbook are in-depth coverage of different topics, solved practical examples, unique datasets for a variety of examples in the areas of decision sciences, in-depth analysis of problems through colored charts, 3D diagrams, and discussions about software.
Decision Support Methods in Modern Transportation Systems and Networks (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems #208)
by Elżbieta Macioszek Grzegorz SierpińskiThis book contains an abundance of numerical analyses based on significant data sets, illustrating importance of environmentally friendly solutions requiring transport networks to be redesigned or clean zones to be implemented. What kind of steps should be taken to redesign transport network? How to evaluate efficiency or flexibility of transport system and city logistics? What factors can be taken into account in the process of optimizing the functioning of public transport or paid parking zones? How to optimize supply chains (including last mile delivering and routing problem)? Which of the multi-criteria methods should be applied to support decision making processes while tackling problems of global transport systems? Answers to these and many other questions can be found in this book.With regard to the research results discussed and the selected solutions applied, the book entitled "Decision support methods in modern transportation systems and networks" primarily addresses the needs of three target groups: · Scientists and researchers (ITS field)· Local authorities (responsible for the transport systems at the urban and regional level)· Representatives of business (traffic strategy management) and industry (manufacturers of ITS components).
Decision Support System: Tools and Techniques
by Susmita BandyopadhyayThis book presents different tools and techniques used for Decision Support Systems (DSS), including decision tree and table, and their modifications, multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, network tools of decision support, and various case-based reasoning methods supported by examples and case studies. Latest developments for each of the techniques have been discussed separately, and possible future research areas are duly identified as intelligent and spatial DSS. Features: Discusses all the major tools and techniques for Decision Support System supported by examples. Explains techniques considering their deterministic and stochastic aspects. Covers network tools including GERT and Q-GERT. Explains the application of both probability and fuzzy orientation in the pertinent techniques. Includes a number of relevant case studies along with a dedicated chapter on software. This book is aimed at researchers and graduate students in information systems, data analytics, operation research, including management and computer science areas.
Decision Support Systems for Weed Management
by Guillermo R. Chantre José L. González-AndújarWeed management Decision Support Systems (DSS) are increasingly important computer-based tools for modern agriculture. Nowadays, extensive agriculture has become highly dependent on external inputs and both economic costs, as well the negative environmental impact of agricultural activities, demands knowledge-based technology for the optimization and protection of non-renewable resources. In this context, weed management strategies should aim to maximize economic profit by preserving and enhancing agricultural systems. Although previous contributions focusing on weed biology and weed management provide valuable insight on many aspects of weed species ecology and practical guides for weed control, no attempts have been made to highlight the forthcoming importance of DSS in weed management. This book is a first attempt to integrate `concepts and practice’ providing a novel guide to the state-of-art of DSS and the future prospects which hopefully would be of interest to higher-level students, academics and professionals in related areas.
Decision Support for Product Development: Using Computational Intelligence for Information Acquisition in Enterprise Databases (Computational Intelligence Methods and Applications)
by Marcin RelichThis book describes how to use computational intelligence and artificial intelligence tools to improve the decision-making process in new product development. These approaches, including artificial neural networks and constraint satisfaction solutions, enable a more precise prediction of product development performance compared to widely used multiple regression models. They support decision-makers by providing more reliable information regarding, for example, project portfolio selection and project scheduling.The book is appropriate for computer scientists, management scientists, students and practitioners engaged with product innovation and computational intelligence applications.
Decision System in Agricultural Pest Management
by Ali Rajabpour Fatemeh YarahmadiThis book covers the theoretical and practical aspects of pest population components, explaining the probable reasons for pest density fluctuations and outbreaks in agricultural or other ecosystems. Agricultural pest management is a complex task that involves dealing with a variety of pests, including insects, diseases, and weeds. Decision systems can help farmers navigate this complexity by providing structured approaches to identify, monitor, and control pests. By making informed decisions based on data and models, farmers can reduce unnecessary pesticide applications, minimizing environmental impact and saving costs. This book aids in predicting pest outbreaks using population growth parameters and estimating economic crop losses through critical thresholds, illustrated with simple case studies. Additionally, the book covers image processing, remote sensing monitoring, and other novel methods for monitoring and quickly forecasting pest population outbreaks to developintegrated pest management (IPM) programs. The book is valuable for agricultural and entomological students (graduates and postgraduates), researchers, as well as pest managers and farmers.
Decision Trees Versus Systems of Decision Rules: A Rough Set Approach (Studies in Big Data #160)
by Mikhail Moshkov Kerven Durdymyradov Azimkhon OstonovThis book explores, within the framework of rough set theory, the complexity of decision trees and decision rule systems and the relationships between them for problems over information systems, for decision tables from closed classes, and for problems involving formal languages. Decision trees and systems of decision rules are widely used as means of representing knowledge, as classifiers that predict decisions for new objects, as well as algorithms for solving various problems of fault diagnosis, combinatorial optimization, etc. Decision trees and systems of decision rules are among the most interpretable models of knowledge representation and classification. Investigating the relationships between these two models is an important task in computer science. The possibilities of transforming decision rule systems into decision trees are being studied in detail. The results are useful for researchers using decision trees and decision rule systems in data analysis, especially in rough set theory, logical analysis of data, and test theory. This book is also used to create courses for graduate students.
Decision Trees for Fault Diagnosis in Circuits and Switching Networks (Studies in Systems, Decision and Control #493)
by Mikhail Moshkov Monther Busbait Albina Moshkova Vladimir ShevtchenkoIn this book, we study decision trees for fault diagnosis in circuits and switching networks, which are among the most fundamental models for computing Boolean functions. We consider two main cases: when the scheme (circuit or switching network) has the same mode of operation for both calculation and diagnostics, and when the scheme has two modes of operation—normal for calculation and special for diagnostics. In the former case, we get mostly negative results, including superpolynomial lower bounds on the minimum depth of diagnostic decision trees depending on scheme complexity and the NP-hardness of construction diagnostic decision trees. In the latter case, we describe classes of schemes and types of faults for which decision trees can be effectively used to diagnose schemes, when they are transformed into so-called iteration-free schemes. The tools and results discussed in this book help to understand both the possibilities and challenges of using decision trees to diagnose faults in various schemes. The book is useful to specialists both in the field of theoretical and technical diagnostics.It can also be used for the creation of courses for graduate students.
Decision Trees with Hypotheses (Synthesis Lectures on Intelligent Technologies)
by Beata Zielosko Igor Chikalov Shahid Hussain Mikhail Moshkov Mohammad AzadIn this book, the concept of a hypothesis about the values of all attributes is added to the standard decision tree model, considered, in particular, in test theory and rough set theory. This extension allows us to use the analog of equivalence queries from exact learning and explore decision trees that are based on various combinations of attributes, hypotheses, and proper hypotheses (analog of proper equivalence queries). The two main goals of this book are (i) to provide tools for the experimental and theoretical study of decision trees with hypotheses and (ii) to compare these decision trees with conventional decision trees that use only queries, each based on a single attribute. Both experimental and theoretical results show that decision trees with hypotheses can have less complexity than conventional decision trees. These results open up some prospects for using decision trees with hypotheses as a means of knowledge representation and algorithms for computing Boolean functions. The obtained theoretical results and tools for studying decision trees with hypotheses are useful for researchers using decision trees and rules in data analysis. This book can also be used as the basis for graduate courses.
Decision and Control in Hybrid Wind Farms (Studies in Systems, Decision and Control #253)
by Dipankar Deb Harsh S. DhimanThis book focuses on two of the most important aspects of wind farm operation: decisions and control. The first part of the book deals with decision-making processes, and explains that hybrid wind farm operation is governed by a set of alternatives that the wind farm operator must choose from in order to achieve optimal delivery of wind power to the utility grid. This decision-making is accompanied by accurate forecasts of wind speed, which must be known beforehand. Errors in wind forecasting can be compensated for by pumping power from a reserve capacity to the grid using a battery energy storage system (BESS). Alternatives based on penalty cost are assessed using certain criteria, and MCDM methods are used to evaluate the best choice. Further, considering the randomness in the dynamic phenomenon in wind farms, a fuzzy MCDM approach is applied during the decision-making process to evaluate the best alternative for hybrid wind farm operation. Case studies from wind farms in the USA are presented, together with numerical solutions to the problem. In turn, the second part deals with the control aspect, and especially with yaw angle control, which facilitates power maximization at wind farms. A novel transfer function-based methodology is presented that controls the wake center of the upstream turbine(s); lidar-based numerical simulation is carried out for wind farm layouts; and an adaptive control strategy is implemented to achieve the desired yaw angle for upstream turbines. The proposed methodology is tested for two wind farm layouts. Wake management is also implemented for hybrid wind farms where BESS life enhancement is studied. The effect of yaw angle on the operational cost of BESS is assessed, and case studies for wind farm datasets from the USA and Denmark are discussed. Overall, the book provides a comprehensive guide to decision and control aspects for hybrid wind farms, which are particularly important from an industrial standpoint.
Decision and Decision-maker in an Industrial Environment
by Lamia Berrah Vincent ClivilléDecision and Decision-maker in an Industrial Environment developed around the observation that two different decision-makers, faced with the same problem, may not make the same decision. The book proposes explanations for this, ranging from the wholly rational to the irrational, and analyzes different factors in decision-making, such as the intention of the decision-maker, the environment in which their decision is made or the process leading to decision-making. While the common belief is that everything in an industrial environment stems from reasoned decisions, analysis of common practice shows that this is not always the case. This book offers an original perspective by presenting the decision making mechanism from the point of view of the decision maker and their handling of a specific decision-making problem. To learn more about the decision-maker’s motivations when faced with these situations, the authors provide a review of the history of decisionmaking and the major trends in decision-making theory. The concepts and methods are presented with illustrations based on the use of an MES, an industrial management software package.
Decision and Game Theory for Security: 10th International Conference, GameSec 2019, Stockholm, Sweden, October 30 – November 1, 2019, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #11836)
by Tansu Alpcan Yevgeniy Vorobeychik John S. Baras György DánThis book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Decision and Game Theory for Security, GameSec 2019,held in Stockholm, Sweden, in October 2019.The 21 full papers presented together with 11 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 47 submissions.The papers focus on protection of heterogeneous, large-scale and dynamic cyber-physical systems as well as managing security risks faced by critical infrastructures through rigorous and practically-relevant analytical methods.
Decision-Based Design
by Christopher Hoyle Henk Jan Wassenaar Wei ChenBuilding upon the fundamental principles of decision theory, Decision-Based Design: Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design presents an analytical approach to enterprise-driven Decision-Based Design (DBD) as a rigorous framework for decision making in engineering design. Once the related fundamentals of decision theory, economic analysis, and econometrics modelling are established, the remaining chapters describe the entire process, the associated analytical techniques, and the design case studies for integrating consumer preference modeling into the enterprise-driven DBD framework. Methods for identifying key attributes, optimal design of human appraisal experiments, data collection, data analysis, and demand model estimation are presented and illustrated using engineering design case studies. The scope of the chapters also provides: A rigorous framework of integrating the interests from both producer and consumers in engineering design, Analytical techniques of consumer choice modelling to forecast the impact of engineering decisions, Methods for synthesizing business and engineering models in multidisciplinary design environments, and Examples of effective application of Decision-Based Design supported by case studies. No matter whether you are an engineer facing decisions in consumer related product design, an instructor or student of engineering design, or a researcher exploring the role of decision making and consumer choice modelling in design, Decision-Based Design: Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design provides a reliable reference over a range of key topics.
Decision-Making Analyses with Thermodynamic Parameters and Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations (Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing #409)
by Zeshui Xu Peijia RenThe book introduces readers to some of the latest advances in and approaches to decision-making methods based on thermodynamic characters and hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations. By investigating the decision-making methods with thermodynamic parameters based on different information representatives, the book offers readers a novel perspective for solving problems under uncertainty. By exploring the consistency and consensus of hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations, the book gives readers efficient ways for preference analysis under uncertainty, chiefly intended for researchers and practitioners working in operations research, multi-attribute decision making, preference analysis, etc. The book can also be used as supplementary material for postgraduate and senior-year undergraduate students of the relevant professional institutions.
Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration
by Fiona Lettice Olatunde Amoo Durowoju Hing Kai ChanEffective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application of various decision-making techniques. By covering such a range of topics in this way, Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a useful reference for researchers looking to develop their knowledge or find potential new avenues of research.
Decision-Making for a Sustainable Environment: A Systemic Approach (Social Environmental Sustainability)
by Chris MaserIncreasingly, environmental decision making is like playing a multidimensional game of chess. With interactions between the atmosphere, the litho-hydrosphere, and the biosphere, the game is at once a measure of complexity, uncertainty, interdisciplinary acuity, social-environmental sustainability, and social justice for all generations. As such, it
Decision-Making in Design, Maintenance, Planning, and Investment of Wind Energy (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science #355)
by Daniela BorissovaThis book demonstrates how decision-making models can be applied to solve specific real-life problems, with a particular emphasis on wind energy. In a step-by-step manner, it guides the reader through decision-making, the formulation of optimization models, and the methods for solving them. After providing an overview of various models for the design of wind farms, it presents an optimization model for deciding which economy (country) to invest in and models for selecting suppliers. A dedicated chapter focuses on different models for monitoring and predictive maintenance for wind turbines (farms) due to the construction of turbine blades and vibration. It shows how combinatorial optimization models can help to make optimal decisions for one-dimensional cutting stock of blanks, their processing, and determining the optimal composition for production. Moreover, it discusses how the energy consumption balance index formed by conventional and renewable sources can be determined and presents a means of identifying the relative share of wind energy consumption among the other renewable sources. Operations research professionals, students, and decision-makers alike will find this book to be a valuable resource for tackling real-world challenges and driving sustainable advances in wind energy solutions.
Decision-Making in Energy Systems
by Vivek D. BhiseThis is a comprehensive book on how to make complex decisions on energy systems problems involving different technologies, environmental effects, costs, benefits, risks, and safety issues. Using Industrial and Systems Engineering techniques for decision-making in Energy Systems, the book provides the background knowledge and methods to incorporate multiple criteria involved in solving energy system problems. It offers methods, examples, and case studies illustrating applications. Decision-Making in Energy Systems discusses subjective as well as objective methods, approaches, and techniques taken from the systems and industrial engineering domain and puts them to use in solving energy systems problems. It uses an integrated approach by including effects of all technical, economic, environmental, and safety considerations as well as costs and risks. The book is specially designed for practicing engineers from industrial/systems engineering who work in energy systems engineering industries. Aimed at graduate students, researchers, and managers involved in various energy generating, distributing, and consuming companies, the book helps the reader to understand, evaluate, and decide on solutions to their energy-related problems.
Decision-Making in Environmental Health: From Evidence to Action
by D. Briggs C. Corvalan G. ZielhuisDecision-Making in Environmental Health examines the need for information in support of decision-making in environmental health. It discusses indicators of environmental health, methods of data collection and the assessment of exposure to and the health impact of different environmental risk factors.
Decision-Making in High Risk Organizations Under Stress Conditions
by Anthony J. Spurgin David W. StupplesThis book discusses management decision-making under accident conditions as a vehicle to confirm the importance of clear decision-making guided by a systems approach on how an organization functions related to the role of managers, operators, and the operation of the plant. The book shows how to effectively assess the reliability of an organization particularly those organizations responsible for critical infrastructure. The authors have used Stafford Beer’s cybernetic model as a basis to model the behavior and reliability of such organizations. A series of case studies are used to draw conclusions not only how training, experience, and education can improve the strategy and response of management to reduce the probability of an economic or social disaster, but also draw attention to the fact that managers need to be made aware of the consequences of their decisions. Poor management decisions made under stress conditions can lead to the collapse of an organization together with its underlying business, possibly linked to a social disaster with loss of life. Some technology-ignorant management decisions even under non-stress conditions can lead to dangerous situations, which can increase the economic burden placed on an organization. This book describes such situations in order to promote improvement in organizational preparedness by training, experience, and education to reduce safety and economic risks. This book offers:• Case studies of accidents that have affected different HROs (high-risk organizations) and others, due to poor decision-making by management• Training methods (advocated by Admiral Hyman Rickover, adopted by military bodies and others) to prepare staff to make critical decisions under difficult conditions and examine their applicability to training managers of high-risk facilities• Documentation on how making decisions in difficult situations have psychological constraints related to the degree of preparedness and the tools available to aid the decision maker(s)• Studies on the key actions taken before, during, and after accidents and how these management decisions can affect accident propagation, and how one could improve management decision-making by the use of training in decision-making and an understanding of Ross Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety.• Simulation techniques to improve training of front-line operators and management• Consideration of cost and investment evaluations and how they can distort the selection of tactics and measures that ensure successful operations and avoidance of accidents
Decision-making Analysis and Optimization Modeling of Emergency Warnings for Major Accidents
by Wenmei Gai Yan Du Yunfeng DengThis book highlights cutting-edge research into emergency early warning management and decision-making for severe accidents. Using toxic gas leakages as examples, it puts forward new design methods for emergency early warning systems, as well as a systematic description of emergency early warning information communication mechanisms and characteristics of regional evacuation, based on a wide range of theories, including safety engineering, information engineering, communication, behaviorology and others. The book applies a range of methods, such as case analysis, questionnaire interviews, and multi-objective optimization modeling. Drawing on this basis, it subsequently proposes a multi-objective optimization modeling and algorithm for emergency path selection, together with an evacuation risk assessment method. Divided into six chapters prepared by an international team of researchers, the book addresses the design of early warning systems, communication and dissemination mechanisms of early warning information, characteristics of regional evacuation, multi-objective optimization of emergency paths, and evacuation risk assessment. The book offers an essential reference guide for engineering technicians and researchers in a wide range of fields, including emergency management, safety science and engineering, disaster relief engineering, and transportation optimization, as well as graduate students in related majors at colleges and universities.
Decision-making Strategies for Automated Driving in Urban Environments (Springer Theses)
by Antonio ArtuñedoThis book describes an effective decision-making and planning architecture for enhancing the navigation capabilities of automated vehicles in the presence of non-detailed, open-source maps. The system involves dynamically obtaining road corridors from map information and utilizing a camera-based lane detection system to update and enhance the navigable space in order to address the issues of intrinsic uncertainty and low-fidelity. An efficient and human-like local planner then determines, within a probabilistic framework, a safe motion trajectory, ensuring the continuity of the path curvature and limiting longitudinal and lateral accelerations. LiDAR-based perception is then used to identify the driving scenario, and subsequently re-plan the trajectory, leading in some cases to adjustment of the high-level route to reach the given destination. The method has been validated through extensive theoretical and experimental analyses, which are reported here in detail.